A few weeks ago, when the Iranian rial lost 90% of its value and traded at nearly 1.5 million to the dollar, small shopkeepers and market sellers, who had been the regime's most loyal supporters, decided they had had enough. They took to the streets and called for an end to the clerical-fascist regime they had so loyally supported for 46 years.
This triggered a series of actions by the regime that ultimately led to mass slaughter. They realized there was no putting the genie back in the bottle and that the only way to maintain power was to completely cow the people into submission.
In previous street uprisings, the leadership used both a carrot and a stick in their approach. They would identify protest leaders and either kill them or detain them, while practicing brutal crowd control efforts. At the same time, there would be conciliatory language from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other leading clerics promising that things would get better.
This time, there was no pretense in their strategy. There were no half measures. This wasn't the police or their auxiliaries getting out of control.
It was cold-blooded, deliberate, and planned murder where the security personnel fired shotguns and automatic weapons at the crowds where they were thickest. They killed people running away.
Lama Fakih, program director at Human Rights Watch, issued a statement saying, in part, “The mass killings by Iranian security forces since January 8 are unprecedented in the country and a stark reminder that rulers who massacre their own people will keep committing atrocities until they are held to account."
The ferocity of the regime's response is a result of its recognition that its only chance of survival is to kill anyone who raises an eyebrow in opposition. These were the tactics employed by North Korea's Kim Il-sung and the Soviet Union's Josef Stalin. Kim ruled from 1948-1994, while Stalin was in charge from the late 1920s until his death in 1953. Both leaders survived by bathing in rivers of blood when necessary, but at the cost of bringing their countries to their knees economically and spiritually.
The Islamic Republic managed to keep the regime of Syria’s Bashar al-Asaad in power for over twelve years by massacring more than a half-million people and displacing over 13 million others. The international community’s failure to act allowed those crimes to continue. Iran now stands at risk of following the same path, this time against its own civilians.
Only days after imposing the internet blackout, Iran’s supreme leader addressed the nation. He stated that this revolution is based on blood and made clear that mass killing is necessary to preserve the regime. This reflected orders given to his armed forces.
The Iranian people are resisting. Courage alone cannot stop bullets. They need decisive international military support. Without military intervention, the regime will continue killing with impunity.
It's probably a little late for decisive military support. The regime has successfully quieted the streets, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), although there is still some protest activity in the Kurdish, Arab, and Baluchi provinces. Iranian minorities have always taken advantage of unrest in Persian Iran to agitate for independence.
However, ISW reports no large protests in Tehran since Jan. 10, and all across Iran, in cities large and small, soldiers, police, and "special auxiliaries" such as the Basij are patrolling streets with their weapons. The message is clear, and the Iranians are taking it to heart.
While the protests appear to have stopped for now, authorities are bracing for more unrest on various anniversaries and religious observances.
ISW:
Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told media activists that the regime does not plan to restore domestic access to the international internet until the end of the 40-day mourning period for those killed in the recent protests. The 40th day of mourning marks the end of the initial mourning period and is often observed with public commemorations and gatherings in Shia Islam. The 40th day could bring many Iranians out in the streets as they commemorate those killed during the protests. The regime has historically tried to block funeral and commemoration ceremonies because they often turn into anti-regime protests. Protests and clashes with security forces erupted at a gathering to mark the end of the 40-day mourning period for Hadis Najafi, a protester killed during the Mahsa Amini movement.
The 40-day mourning period for protesters killed on January 8 ends on February 17.
Also, the Iranian New Year festival, Nowruz, is on March 20. This celebration always brings people into the streets.
It remains unclear whether the regime will securitize in targeted pulses around February 17 and Nowruz or sustain its current securitization for more than two months. Prolonged securitization would likely severely strain Iran’s economy. Internet monitor NetBlocks estimates that country-wide internet shutdowns cost over $1.5 million USD per hour, which means that the shutdown losses would exceed $1 billion by February 17 and $2 billion by Nowruz if maintained continuously. Extended security force mobilizations also risk exhausting security forces, potentially diminishing their willingness and ability to continue to suppress protesters. Exhaustion in the security forces could be more pronounced if Iran needs to use units for both protest suppression and border security. The regime still faces uncertainty about how the population will respond once some security measures are lifted.
The Iranians don't need an excuse to protest, but in this case, people will feel safer in large numbers even if it's an illusion. There is no safety from a regime that has decided to kill its own people to stay in power.
