As the war in Ukraine drags on, President Volodymyr Zelensky is beginning to accept that peace will require sacrifices by Kyiv that were unthinkable to him a year ago.
While Ukraine has had a few morale-building victories lately, including a spectacular strike on Russia's Black Sea fleet that damaged several ships, they haven't been enough to turn the tide of the war against the implacable advance of Russia's forces in the East.
That doesn't mean that Moscow has completely had its way in the East. Russian milbloggers, many of whom are more reliable than any government or intelligence service, report that Ukraine is putting up a stout defense in a vital sector of Kupyansk.
"Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers are acknowledging significant Ukrainian successes in the Kupyansk direction and criticizing the Kremlin and the Russian military command for providing false battlefield reports," claims a brief from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to the Russian milbloggers, "Russian forces lost a significant part of their bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River as Ukrainian forces regained positions immediately north and northwest of Kupyansk."
While heartening for Ukraine, the small victories do not change the overall strategic situation for Kyiv, which is bad and getting worse. Now, Ukraine and the U.S. have hammered out a peace plan that would include a "demilitarized zone" in Donbas that would be a "free economic zone" where European troops would ensure compliance with the peace terms.
“We are ready for a meeting with the United States at the leaders’ level to address sensitive issues. Matters such as territorial questions must be discussed at the leaders’ level,” Zelensky said in a press conference on Wednesday.
Zelensky is seeking political cover from Trump, trying to make it appear that the U.S. was to blame for this "unacceptable" concession — unacceptable until recently. That's the point of meeting with Trump in the first place. He wants to be able to point to his 180-degree turnabout on territorial concessions as being Trump's doing.
It's a move that Zelensky could have made a year ago. Now, any terms Putin might grant him will be far more damaging to Ukraine's sovereignty.
Why should Putin agree to anything less than what he's been demanding, which is total control of Donbas and much of Eastern Ukraine? Look at what he's gotten so far without giving an inch.
Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw from territories in the Donetsk region as part of a deal to end the war, but Kyiv previously said it has no moral right or constitutional leeway to give up Ukrainian territory. The U.S. is looking for a compromise in creating a “free economic zone” in the area.
Zelensky said the fairest option would be to start talks with Russia based on the current front line—not a forced withdrawal—and said if Ukrainian troops withdraw from the area, Russia should also agree to pull back its troops.
If the 20-point plan entails establishing free economic zones, Ukrainian people will have the last word through a vote on the entire deal, he said.
“Only a referendum can determine whether people agree to such a path, if the proposal for Ukraine is…either this or war,” Zelensky told journalists.
Like an addicted gambler, Zelensky just can't bring himself to push away from the table and limit his losses.
Another aspect of the proposed deal is NATO-like "security guarantees" that Zelensky wants in place before he signs any deal. The Europeans are still bickering about the size and scope of any multilateral force, and Trump has blown hot and cold on American participation.
“If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a coordinated military response, all global sanctions against Russia will be restored,” Zelensky said.
Only a dramatic change in the military situation on the ground in Eastern Ukraine will move Putin to alter his demands. Ukraine lacks the offensive firepower to mount a sustained attack, and without that ability, Putin can continue his bloody advance, sacrificing hundreds of thousands of Russians to achieve his war aims. Estimates for Russian casualties in the war vary widely, but multiple intelligence and independent open-source analyses as of late 2025 place the total number of killed and wounded at approximately 1 million, with estimated deaths ranging from 190,000 to over 350,000.
It's going to be a hard winter in Ukraine.
