It's being called "one of the most competitive Senate primary races Illinois has seen in decades."
Since Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) announced on Wednesday that he would not seek re-election, several "shadow" candidates for his seat who had formed embryonic campaign organizations in anticipation of his announcement have all but announced their intentions to run.
Several sitting congressmen, including Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Schaumburg, Robin Kelly of Matteson, and Lauren Underwood of Naperville have ready-made federal campaign committees to accept donations. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is trying to spend down her state campaign funds, raising her profile online in a race that promises to easily top half a billion in spending.
Krishnamoorthi is not wasting any time. On Thursday, the 7th district congressman took off on a bus tour of central and southern Illinois, going into the red heart of Illinois. Kelly is set to hold a “town hall” on the Eastern Illinois University campus in Charleston, another GOP bastion.
Whichever candidate emerges from the dozen or so expected entrants in the Democratic primary to succeed Durbin will get 65-70% of the vote in Cook County and close to 60% in some of the collar counties, like south of the city in Dupage County and Will County, in the general election.
The rest of the state is solid GOP. But since more than 60% of the state's population lives in and around Chicago, a Republican needs 65% of the vote in the rest of the state to win on election day.
The Republican Party in Illinois is a fractured, quarreling group of dysfunctional politicians. The party holds only three congressional seats and hasn't held statewide office since 2019.
Former Party Chairman Don Tracy, who resigned just before the Democratic convention in Chicago last July, summed up the problem succinctly.
In his resignation letter, Tracy said he spent “far too much time dealing with intraparty power struggles, and local intraparty animosities” involving “Republicans who would rather fight other Republicans than engage in the harder work of defeating incumbent Democrats.”
That's the way it's been for the last decade.
One potential GOP Senate candidate is Rep. Darin LaHood of Peoria, who said Wednesday that he was seriously considering a run for the Senate.
LaHood, the son of former longtime GOP congressman and Obama transportation secretary Ray LaHood, had nearly $5.9 million in his federal campaign fund as of April 1. One of only three House Republicans in Illinois’ congressional delegation, LaHood has served since 2015 in Congress and has been a strong supporter of President Trump.
A statement from Jake Ford, LaHood’s political director, said Durbin’s retirement was “long overdue” and that the senator served as “the face of Washington dysfunction.”
“Illinoisans are ready to turn the page. Voters are tired of out-of-touch liberal policies that have failed working families, and prioritized illegal immigrants and far-left ideological agendas over hard working American taxpayers,” Ford said in touting LaHood’s “strong support from voters.” LaHood has benefited by congressional maps drawn by legislative Democrats that sought to pack Republicans into as few GOP-majority districts as possible while maximizing Democratic representation from Illinois in the House.
There may be an opening for LaHood or another Republican. But the cosmic tumblers would all have to click into place for the GOP candidate to win.
The Democratic primary is not only going to be very competitive, but it's also likely to get nasty. And it's going to be very, very expensive. The primary is likely to be held in April, which means the winner of the Democratic scrum will have about six months to raise the $100 million necessary to take on a well-financed Republican.
It's a long shot. But so are a lot of races in politics these days.
