Iranian hardliners have elbowed some of the more "moderate" elements in the government out of the way and are now firmly in control again.
The hardline faction has been the most organized in the entire 45-year history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is due to the way the government is structured. Iran's government is based on the "Führerprinzip" that guided Nazi Germany. The Supreme Leader is all-powerful, and there is unquestioning obedience by underlings. But to gain any kind of influence, factions emerge to try and steer power their way.
The Nazis were quite bloody about it. The Iranians, less so.
On March 2, word filtered out of Iran that Minister of Economy and Financial Affairs Abdolnasser Hemmati was summarily fired by parliament. The fact that the Iranian economy is moribund had little to do with Hemmati's firing. Hemmati’s firing after less than seven months in office shows that economic pragmatists and political moderates have lost the argument.
Hemmati ran for president in 2021 on a platform of loosening controls on the economy and, suicidally, cracking down on sanctions profiteers. The problem there is that several of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's sons are engaged in the practice. So much for Hemmati's presidential ambitions.
What made Hemmmati so dangerous to the hardliners was his desire to negotiate an end to the crippling sanctions that were destroying the Iranian economy. But the hardliners were using the sanctions for political gain with voters while the aforementioned sanctions profiteers were getting rich.
So Hemmait had to go. The return of Donald Trump to the presidency made his continued service an embarrassment. There can be no compromise with America, no matter how low the Iranian economy sinks.
The sacking highlights a change of direction in the regime’s foreign policy. Whereas President Masoud Pezeshkian ascended to the presidency as a reformist ready to make amends with the United States to get sanctions lifted, the return of Donald Trump to the White House means that the Islamic Republic now prepares for the return of “maximum pressure.” Gone are efforts to improve prosperity; back in fashion is the “resistance economy,” which emphasizes patriot austerity and domestic production of foodstuffs and military goods.
Another four years of the "resistance economy" will almost certainly lead to more street protests and a resulting crackdown. The problem for the Iranians is that they may end up like Lebanon: prostrate and broke.
"The Iranian rial has lost one-third of its value relative to the U.S. dollar since Trump’s victory. Both private-sector traders and the government horde dollars to hedge against new sanctions," writes MEF's Shay Khatiri.
"The energy shortfall means not only frequent blackouts, but also routine closures of schools and government offices. Tehran schools closed 50 days over the last 100, for example."
The hardline faction doesn't have to worry about going hungry or enduring blackouts. They are well supplied with food and fuel. Now, they must ride out the coming storm from the U.S. "Maximum Pressure" campaign and the unrest that's almost sure to come as a result of economic hardship.
Iranian hardliners do not revert to the “resistance economy” for its own sake; it usually presages an effort to defy the world. In this case, expect Iran to accelerate its nuclear weaponization process. Khamenei believes he is paying the price, so he might as well get the goods.
The Pezeshkian administration may continue diplomatic outreach; they may even be sincere, though they are also powerless. Rather than deal, it now appears Khamenei only allows diplomacy in the hope it will delay a military attack long enough for Iran to complete its nuclear project.
I doubt very much that Israel will allow Iran to complete the "project." It wouldn't surprise anyone if Israel had a spy close to Khamenei and would be able to determine if Tehran was about to go nuclear.
With Trump in office, there's nothing holding Prime Minister Netanyahu back if he decides to go to war.
