U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are closing in on a massive deal that would give the U.S. rights to about half of Kyiv's strategic minerals, including Europe’s largest reserves of titanium, which is used to make alloys for aircraft and naval vessels, and lithium, a key material in batteries.
When first presented with the deal earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned it down flat. Zelenskyy wanted some kind of "security guarantee" that the U.S. would supply a continued flow of arms to Kyiv after any peace deal with Moscow.
Then came a deal that Zelenskyy couldn't refuse: sign the agreement on minerals or lose access to Starlink, the Elon Musk-Space X satellite system critical to Ukraine's defense.
On Saturday, Zelenskyy was singing a different tune. “This is an agreement that can strengthen our relations, and the key is to work out the details to ensure its effectiveness,” Zelenskyy said. “I look forward to the outcome—a just result.”
“I think they want it. They feel good about it," Trump said of the deal.
The deal, which will include rare earth minerals to which the U.S. has limited access but of which Russia and China have large deposits, would require a huge investment in order to get the wealth out of the ground. Also, some of the richest deposits are in Russian-held territory.
Getting access to half a trillion dollars in strategic minerals would be a huge coup for the U.S.
The threat to cut off access to Starlink brings into stark relief Ukraine's vulnerability. Quite simply, Ukraine can't afford to lose Starlink as a key element in its drone campaign.
All of those weapons systems that were promised to bring Russia to its knees are not as important on the Ukrainian battlefield as cheaply made, domestically produced drones. And to target those drones, the Ukrainian military desperately needs Starlink.
Ukraine's continued access to SpaceX-owned Starlink was brought up in discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian officials after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy turned down an initial proposal from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the sources said.
Starlink provides crucial internet connectivity to war-torn Ukraine and its military.
The issue was raised again on Thursday during meetings between Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special Ukraine envoy, and Zelenskiy, said one of the sources, who was briefed on the talks.
During the meeting, Ukraine was told it faced imminent shutoff of the service if it did not reach a deal on critical minerals, said the source, who requested anonymity to discuss closed negotiations.
"Ukraine runs on Starlink. They consider it their North Star," said the source. "Losing Starlink ... would be a massive blow."
It seems likely that the Trump tirades against Zelenskyy were mostly a negotiating ploy to get the Ukrainian president to sign on the dotted line. The two will never be fast friends. But Zelenskyy needs Trump a lot more than Trump needs Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy now understands that.
With a huge U.S. investment in Ukraine's mineral wealth, a "security guarantee" of some kind isn't out of the question. How or what it might entail, we can be fairly certain that it won't include any U.S. troops. Great Britain said it would be willing to send troops, but unless their presence is enough of a tripwire to deter Russia from attacking again, they're just cannon fodder.
Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump's Ukraine envoy, emerged as a key player in the negotiations. Ukrainians say, "Kellogg played 'a big part' in finalizing terms of the deal by building trust with Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials over a three-day visit to the country’s capital," according to the Wall Street Journal.
Europe and supporters of Ukraine in America had collective heart attacks over Trump appearing to agree with Moscow that Ukraine started the war. Trump changed course on Friday, agreeing that Russia started the war, but still thinks that Biden could have reached a deal with Putin to avoid the conflict.
