Europeans gathered in Munich this week to attend the annual security conference with the number one topic, as it has been for three years, Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
There was not much talk about "total victory" for Ukraine. Previous conferences featured optimistic talk about how this advanced weapons system or that one is a "war winner." As it turns out, Ukraine's best weapons are homemade drones and battle-hardened Ukrainian troops holding off the increasingly aggressive Russians with an indomitable will to hang on.
Hang on for what? Hang on until America swoops in and saves the day. This is what Ukraine hopes will happen. The Europeans hope it will happen, too, so they don't have to shoulder arms and fight.
Russia is winning. The U.S. knows it. Putin knows it. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy knows it. And Zelenskyy is slowly beginning to realize that America is not the calvary and will not ride to Ukraine's rescue.
Both Europe and Ukraine are looking to the post-war environment and the possibility that once Putin has rebuilt his army, he will invade again.
“This is not a country that wants peace,” Zelenskyy said of Russia. “It is not preparing for dialogue.”
Everyone in Europe knows this. The question is what to do about it.
“We must build the armed forces of Europe so that Europe’s future depends only on Europeans and decisions on Europe are made in Europe,” Zelenskyy told the Munich Security Conference in Germany.
“Europe has to become self-sufficient, united by common strengths,” he continued. “Let’s be honest now, we can’t rule out the possibility that America might say no to Europe on issues that threaten it.”
Trump is presenting NATO and Europe with the stark choice of getting serious about their collective defense and defending Ukraine or crawling into a cave waiting for the storm to pass. The reaction to Zelenskyy's suggestion shows that Europe is doomed.
It’s unclear whether the idea will catch on with European leaders. Zelenskyy has sought greater military and economic support from the European Union for years and repeatedly warned that other parts of Europe could be vulnerable to Russia’s expansionist ambitions too.
While the bloc — along with the United States - has been one of Kyiv’s strongest backers, pockets of political disagreement in EU over its approach to Moscow and economic realities, including national debt levels that have crimped defense spending, have gotten in the way of greater support.
In preparing for negotiations. the U.S. has thrown cold water on several of Ukraine's fondest hopes, including membership in NATO and the return of all territory that Russia captured. Zelenskyy also wants "security guarantees" from the U.S. and Ukraine's European allies.
“We cannot agree to a ceasefire without real security guarantees,” he said. “Putin cannot offer real security guarantees — not just because he is a liar, but because Russia, in its current state, needs war to hold power together,” Zelenskyy said.
Zelenskyy alluded to the changing dynamic in Europe between the U.S. and NATO.
“Ukraine will never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement, and the same rule should apply to all of Europe,” Zelenskyy said. “A few days ago, President Trump told me about his conversation with Putin. Not once did he mention that America needs Europe at the table. That says a lot.”
“The old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had.”
Indeed, U.S. special envoy to Russia and Ukraine Gen. Keith Kellogg says that the Europeans will not be invited to sit at the peace table.
“You can have the Ukrainians, the Russians, and clearly the Americans at the table talking,” Kellogg said at a seminar. “I’m a school of realism. I think that’s not going to happen.”
And it shouldn't happen. The U.S. has contributed $75 billion in military aid and another $50 billion in financial and humanitarian assistance. Germany, the largest contributor in the EU, has given $18.1 billion in military, financial, and humanitarian aid. The UK has given $15.4 billion. France, barely $5 billion.
Zelenskyy's plea for a European army will fall on deaf ears because God forbid that Western Europeans should cut social welfare spending in order to defend themselves.
