How will people view Joe Biden's legacy? Was he an average president, below average, or was he outstanding?
The current perception of Biden's presidency is dismal. Gallup's most recent poll on how Americans rate the last nine presidents is an interesting look at how Americans see history.
"Fifty-four percent of U.S. adults believe Biden will be remembered as a 'below average' (37%) or 'poor' (17%) president, while 19% say he will be evaluated as 'outstanding' (6%) or 'above average' (13%). Another 26% think he will be regarded as 'average,'" Gallup reports.
The perception of Biden will almost certainly change over the decades. That's because we will look at Joe Biden through the prism of the past and our own experience in the present. What will America be like in 20 years? In 30?
The hagiography and mysticism surrounding the presidency of John F. Kennedy will last as long as anyone alive on Nov. 22, 1963. Martyrdom assured his place in the pantheon of our greatest presidents. The Gallup survey found that "Republicans rate Kennedy similarly to Democrats, and better than independents do." Seventy percent of Americans rate Kennedy's mediocre presidency as "outstanding" or "above average." He had a net positive rating of 68 because less than 1% of poll respondents judged him "below average" or poor.
On the other hand, only 18% saw Ronald Reagan's presidency as "below average" or "poor." Reagan left office with a positive rating in the low 60s, about what it is today. He had a net positive rating of 38.
Surprisingly, Barack Obama has a net positive rating of only 21, which is far lower than how most historians judge him.
As for Joe Biden, even Democrats think that history will not be kind to him.
More Democrats expect history to look kindly rather than critically on the Biden presidency — 44% think it will be judged outstanding or above average, while 16% say below average or poor. But nearly as many Democrats believe Biden will be remembered as an “average” president (38%) as a good one.
Independents and Republicans are much more pessimistic in their evaluations of Biden’s presidency. The slim majority of independents, 51%, believe Biden will get a negative historical review, compared with 15% who think he’ll get a positive one. Republicans overwhelmingly expect history to judge Biden harshly, including 76% who say he will be regarded as a “poor” president and 17% below average.
We witnessed a phenomenon during the election where perceptions of Donald Trump's first term improved dramatically as the race continued. Gallup surveys in 2021 at the end of Trump's presidency showed him with the lowest job approval on record: 41%.
Today, the memory of that first term has changed. Why is hard to say. Personally, I believe the farther from the extraordinary, hysterical opposition to Trump during his first term that we get, the softer the lens we look through to the past today. It's natural. Living during that time, the emotions, the anger, and even the rage on both sides brought out opposition to Trump and support for him in stark relief. There were few "neutrals" in that war.
Trump is seen as an "outstanding" president by 17% of poll respondents. That's close to the 19% who thought Obama was an "outstanding" president. He was seen as "above average" by 23% and "average" by 16%.
It's his negatives that drag him down.
Trump’s ratings have improved substantially from when he left office in January 2021 in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and the peak in U.S. deaths from COVID-19. At that time, 29% of Americans thought history would judge Trump as an outstanding or above-average president, 10% as average, and 61% below average or poor.
The -32 net rating Trump had in 2021 has improved to -4. Since 2021, there has been a larger decrease in below-average or poor evaluations of Trump’s first term (down 17 points) than an increase in outstanding or above-average ratings (up 11 points).
The biggest decline in below-average or poor ratings of Trump has come among independents (falling from 63% to 47%), but all party groups show meaningful declines in negative assessments of his first term. Most of the increase in outstanding or above-average ratings has come among Republicans, from 72% to 86%.
Four years have passed, and the major media have continued their assault on Trump. Are people less inclined to pay attention? Or have they just become inured to the hyperbole, the exaggeration, and the hysteria about him?
It's probably a little of both.
