The situation is grim for Ukraine's political and military leaders. After more than two and a half years of war, the relentless Russian attacks in the East are beginning to bear fruit. Ukraine's undermanned units on the front are being "sliced up," according to a report in the Economist.
Here and there, the Ukrainians are holding on valiantly, much to Vladimir Putin's embarrassment.
“Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year,” writes Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London, “and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances.”
It's the cruel reality of any war of attrition. The Russians have far more men and armaments and the will of its leader, who doesn't have to worry about domestic opposition. Despite losing 600,00 soldiers to death and wounds, Moscow has more in the tank to finish the job.
The belief in European capitols and Washington is that Russia's breaking point will come after Ukraine's. The only way that can be forestalled is if the strategic calculus of Russia is forced to change.
That only happens if America takes an active role in the war.
But what about the $100 billion in aid America has sent to Ukraine? Isn't that making a difference?
The EU says it's making one million shells a year. Russia is making or acquiring three times that number. “I just don’t know we can produce enough, give enough,” says a person familiar with the flow of American aid.
Another shortfall is in air defense interceptors, allowing Russian drones to fly with impunity and pick out the best targets for its glide bombs and ballistic missiles. There's also a shortage of artillery shells and armored vehicles that makes it harder for Ukraine to go on the offensive — even if they could.
On the battlefield, Russia remains reliant on crude tactics that result in massive casualties. The decision to borrow thousands of North Korean troops, who are thought to be bound for the Kursk front, shows that Russian units are also stretched. Russia’s general staff and defence ministry have put “heavy pressure” on the Kremlin to mobilise more men, says the European official. “Russia now doesn’t have sufficient forces to mass,” says a senior NATO official. “If they achieved a breakthrough they could not exploit it.” There is little short-term risk of Russian troops streaming west to Dnipro or Odessa.
All this means is that eventually, Russia will force Kyivv to accede to its demands. The price for peace in Ukraine is not going to be cheap. Russia will likely force Ukraine to relinquish most of the Donbas region as well as Luhansk in the North and Kherson in the South.
Ukraine is doing all it can to hang on until the Americans can be enticed to enter the war. It's their very last play, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy realizes this.
The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr. Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning. Others put it more delicately. “The next several months”, noted Jim O’Brien, the State Department’s top Europe official, at a conference in Riga on October 19th, “are an opportunity for us to reaffirm that Ukraine can stay on the battlefield for the next couple of years.”
President Zelensky is going to keep fighting as long as the hope of American intervention is kept alive. For their part, Biden and other American officials are keeping the prospect of American intervention alive, either to keep Ukraine fighting or to force the hand of Ukraine supporters in Washington to back an intervention.
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With no hope of a Ukrainian victory without American intervention, the Biden administration (and the Harris administration, if she wins) is asking Ukraine to continue fighting and dying and the American taxpayer to continue shelling out tens of billions of dollars for a lost cause.
If Trump wins the election, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bidenukraine send troops to Ukraine and bring on a shooting war with nuclear-armed Russia. Otherwise, Ukraine is going to lose when American assistance dries up.
Is Ukraine worth ending human civilization for?
