The key to Donald Trump's victory in 2024 is no secret, and neither is Kamala Harris's path to success. The states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will determine the victor. Both campaigns knew this going in.
For Harris, it comes down to simple mathematics. Without all 44 electoral votes in those three states, she faces an uphill battle to find enough electoral votes to win.
As it stands now, Trump has set the stage to win at least one and possibly two of those three states. The Harris campaign hasn't exactly conceded Michigan but admits it's a tough row to hoe for victory in the Great Lakes State.
Trump, with the instincts of a jungle cat, is going for the throat in Pennsylvania. His campaign is pouring money and people into the state, hoping to end the race then and there. He knows a victory there would make it virtually impossible for Harris to find another 19 electoral votes to replace those of the Keystone State. And with Arizona's 11 electoral votes trending strongly for Trump, Harris would essentially be toast if she loses Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin is a true toss-up at this point. But even if Harris wins the Badger State, it won't help her if she loses Pennsylvania and/or Michigan. And the Harris camp knows this.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan.
But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
North Carolina polling is extremely difficult in the aftermath of Helene. The latest polls show Trump with a slight edge but analysts on the ground reflect the Democrats' pessimism about the Tar Heel State "slipping away." Biden-Harris did themselves no favors with a botched response to the storm.
As you might expect, the Harris campaign is whistling past the graveyard, trying to exude confidence.
“I don’t see a blue wall path or a Sun Belt path or a Southern path. I see seven states that are as close as it gets that will all be decided by margins on the ground,” Harris battleground state director Dan Kanninen said in a recent interview. “And so we built an operation that can win close races on the ground, expecting that. And truthfully, one of the seven has as good a chance as any other to be the tipping point state.”
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Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who ran electoral strategy for Democratic presidential nominees in 1988, 2000, and 2004, said it would be highly unusual for the blue wall states to go their separate ways, though he did not rule it out.
“Those three, the blue wall states, almost always stay together, but this year it’s an extraordinarily tight race. When you’re that close it’s easy for the state to go either way. It could happen this year,” he said. “I think it’s more likely that they will do what they have done in cycle after cycle. They will go one way or another, in unison. They are tied together historically with their voting behavior.”
The problem with that kind of analysis is that it relies on historical data. In 2024, you can throw history into the trash bin. This is an election that will be decided by which side has the best ground game and can motivate their voters to go to the polls.
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