Every few election cycles, there are indications prior to the vote that minorities are waking up and are ready to abandon Democrats.
Those predictions were usually based on polling. What would happen if masses of minorities actually registered as Republicans? If that were to happen, the potential is there for a huge shift in the electorate that could scramble the political scene in America for years.
“Never seen anything like this in thirty years,” said California Republican consultant Mike Madrid.
Ummm…Latino Republican registration is expanding fast in California. Never seen anything like this in thirty years.
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) October 9, 2024
Who Is Switching Political Parties in California? - Public Policy Institute of California https://t.co/3Wm4LPUos2
Yes perspective. Not huge but this has never happened in CA in 30 years and it mirrors the trend in 2022 pic.twitter.com/ZyRlNCKkJD
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) October 9, 2024
Younger voters are also leaving the Democrats.
Also young voters are leaving the Democratic Party in California. Big correlation to young and Latino here. pic.twitter.com/FFAm7639bL
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) October 9, 2024
These aren't polls. These numbers are based solely on voter registrations.
Of course, it doesn't mean that this increase in GOP registrations from normally Democratic constituencies will translate into a lot more GOP votes. It could very well be that some of the "new" Republican registrations had been voting GOP already.
These changes are not going to make California go Republican on November 5, but they’re part of a nationwide Republican trend among so-called minorities that may help Trump carry several target states with large percentages of Hispanics — Arizona and Nevada — and Blacks — Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Definitive confirmation of what has been scattered evidence comes from the latest, very highly rated New York Times/Siena poll, which oversampled Hispanics and Blacks. The outlet’s chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, reported last weekend that Trump is trailing Vice President Harris by 78 percent to 15 percent among Blacks and by only 56 percent to 37 percent among Hispanics.
Trump, Mr. Cohn said, “might well return to the White House by faring better among Black and Hispanic voters combined than any Republican presidential nominee since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.”
Trump has nearly doubled his support among Hispanics from 18% to 35%. Harris is panicking about losing support among black men even though she's still getting 75% of the black vote, That's because Democratic presidential candidates always get more than 90% of the black vote.
If Harris can't get more than 75% of the black vote and more than 60% of the Hispanic vote, she is toast.
Last week, Barack Obama tried to blame black men who won't vote for a woman for Harris's trouble with minority voters.
It’s not generally considered good persuasion tactics to accuse voters of bigotry and insist they confess error, but Mr. Obama seemed to be appealing to a longtime theme in Black politics. Any reporter who’s watched a Democratic candidate speak in Black churches has heard preachers call for unity.
The virtual unanimity of Black voters over many years, for Republicans from 1865 to the 1930s, and for Democrats since 1964, is a rational response by voters who are conscious of being part of a discriminated-against minority and who want to maximize their political clout.
That seems natural in a party that historically has always been a coalition of outgroups in a diverse society, minorities who, taken together, can form a national majority. Thus, the commenters on Mr. Madrid’s post are puzzled that Hispanics and Blacks might vote for a Republican Party that, in their view, offers them no policies addressing their specific plight.
I'm old enough to remember when the Irish voted 65-70% Democratic. What happened to them may be happening to Hispanics and some extent, blacks. There's a point when minority voters realize they have a lot more to lose from the confiscatory policies of Democrats than any threat of supposed bigotry from Republicans. Hispanics are intermarrying with non-Hispanics as they become more affluent. They want the same things other Americans want regardless of color, national origin, or religion.
In some ways, Democrats insult them by singling them out for their ethnicity. They've striven all their lives to become "American" and the Democrats want to put them in one of their little identity boxes that they cater to and pander to come election time.
It may be that that dynamic is changing. One election won't determine that. But it's tantalizing to think it might be a tectonic shift in the electorate.
