Ukraine has been begging Joe Biden and its European allies to take the shackles off and allow Kyiv to use the long-range missiles it has received to strike deep inside Russian territory.
Ukraine argues that the accurate and powerful British-made Storm Shadow as well as the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) could be a "game changer." Kyiv believes that striking Russian air bases, supply depots, and communication centers hundreds of miles over the border could relieve pressure on its forces in the Donbas region where the Russians have been making steady progress.
The strikes by Western missiles would theoretically reduce Russia's air superiority and weaken supply lines. How that would be a "game changer" isn't explained. Ukraine's Kursk offensive hasn't slowed Russia's Eastern offensive, and Moscow has been mercilessly pounding Ukraine's power grid.
The question isn't what Ukraine would do with the missiles as much as what Russian President Vladimir Putin would do if Ukraine launches them.
In truth, while Ukraine would be launching them, it would be Western technicians setting up the launch and Western satellites doing the targeting. This brought a very specific warning from Putin.
“This will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia,” Putin said, according to a report by the Kremlin. “And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”
Another bluff? Putin has had so many "red lines" that Ukraine and the U.S. have crossed that one could forgive Biden for believing that this is just more big talk from the Russian president.
As a general rule, it's probably a good idea that no nation should call the bluff of another nation if it's nuclear-armed.
In classified briefings, American intelligence officials have expressed deeper concerns about direct, visible American participation in Ukraine’s move to seize and hold positions near Kursk. There are indications, they have warned, that Russia could provide technological help that would allow Iran and its proxy forces to attack American forces in the Middle East. The administration this week accused Iran of shipping missiles for the first time to Russia for use in the war, an accusation the government in Tehran has denied.
In a series of meetings with senior administration officials in recent weeks, Ukrainian officials have been arguing that their seizure of actual territory inside Russia demonstrates that U.S. fears of crossing Russian red lines were overblown. The United States, those Ukrainian officials argue, should allow Kyiv to use American weapons to strike deeper into Russia.
On Wednesday in Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told reporters that he and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, joined by the British foreign minister, David Lammy, “discussed long-range fires, but a number of other things as well."
“We’re going to take what we learned back to President Biden in my case, and the prime minister in David’s case," Blinken continued. "The two of them will meet in just a few days’ time in Washington to discuss how our countries will continue to support Ukraine.”
“Easing the restrictions on Western weapons will not cause Moscow to escalate,” 17 former ambassadors and generals wrote in a letter to the administration this week. “We know this because Ukraine is already striking territory Russia considers its own — including Crimea and Kursk — with these weapons and Moscow’s response remains unchanged.”
So naturally, Russia won't respond because it hasn't responded to previous red-line crossings. "What fools these mortals be," giggled Puck in Shakespeare's "A Midsummer Night's Dream."
It would not be good for the U.S. if Putin enabled Iran to hit our troops in the Middle East. At the same time, it's doubtful Putin will take that step. The U.S. could destroy Iran's military without much trouble and deliver a blow to the Russia/Ukraine/North Korea axis of evil that would cost Putin some credibility.
Biden will likely grant Ukraine its wish to deploy long-range missiles to hit deep inside Russia with the caveat that only British and French missiles be used.
Biden certainly likes to tempt fate when it comes to Russia. I hope it doesn't blow up in his face.
