It's the most fascinating political exercise I've seen in my 70 years. Democrats who are salivating to replace Joe Biden are dancing, bobbing, and weaving trying to avoid any hint that they're salivating to replace Joe Biden.
It's a very delicate promenade with candidates swearing their utmost loyalty to Joe Biden while planning to jump into the fray the moment he steps down. What makes this exercise even more bizarre is that everyone knows they would slit their mother's throats to replace Biden but must pretend that nothing is amiss and, of course, they support the president.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) has quietly built a skeleton campaign organization "just in case." It appears that "just in case" has materialized and he's believed to have a leg up on any other potential candidate.
What about Kamala Harris? She, too, has a nascent campaign organization that she's been able to piggyback on her vice presidential duties. If Biden resigns and makes her president, it's likely she'll inherit much of Biden's campaign team. This is a formidable outfit that can't be dismissed.
But Harris, whose favorable rating is below 40%, would have an uphill climb to replace her boss. She's also toxic for many Democrats and would not be the first choice of many in her party to replace Biden.
As toxic as she is, as unpopular in the country as she has shown herself to be, Kamala Harris would be the path of least resistance for Democrats. This is especially true if Joe Biden resigns the presidency and Harris is sworn in. Biden could urge all the delegates pledged to him to support Harris, giving her a fighting chance of a first-ballot win at the convention.
“Our only hope is that he bows out, we have a brokered convention, or dies,” an advisor to a Biden mega-donor said “Otherwise we are f***ing dead.”
It's not just a question of wanting to replace Biden on the ticket. He's going to have to want to go. And then there's the little matter of finding another candidate who can win and not blow up the Democratic Party doing it.
Newsom is making all the right noises in backing Biden.
"I would never turn my back on President Biden. Never turn my back on President Biden. I don't know a Democrat in my party that would do so. And especially after tonight, we have his back," Newsom said.
"We run, not the 90-yard dash. We are all in. We're going to double down in the next few months. We're going to win this election," he continued.
Well-spoken, if not very believable.
Newsom assured reporters that he was not going to turn his back on the president and was confident he was fit to be the country's leader.
"I spent a lot of time with him. I know Joe Biden, I know what he's accomplished in the last three and a half years. I know what he's capable of. And I have no trepidations," Newsom said.
Leading up to the debate, rumors continued to swirl that Newsom, a possible candidate for president in 2028, had been tapped as a Biden surrogate leading up to the November presidential election.
If Biden were to step aside, Democratic governors would move front and center. At the top of that list is Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-Ill.). He's not only accomplished much in his 5 years in office, he's easily one of the wealthiest men in politics. His family is worth billions of dollars and he could easily self-finance the initial stages of his campaign.
Other governors could also be in the mix. Govs. Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.) and Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) represent two critical states that Democrats have to have to win the presidency.
Whitmer carries some baggage from the pandemic for her harsh crackdowns on those with vacation homes and her coverup of nursing home deaths.
Shapiro is an unknown quantity to most of the country but is popular at home and comes off as more moderate than many Democrats. It would be very difficult for him to build a campaign organization to rival Newsom's or Harris's.
Don't expect the Democrats to dilly-dally over a replacement for Biden. The less turmoil at the convention, the better it is for the Democrats.
