Conventional wisdom used to be that Robert F. Kennedy would hurt Joe Biden far more than Trump. Kennedy, the former Democrat, the green champion, the son and uncle of liberal icons John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy, was seen as more attractive to the left, especially to older Democrats.
But something unconventional happened to conventional wisdom: It doesn't apply anymore.
Actually, it's something of a mirage because pollsters have only recently begun to include Kennedy in three-way polls. And the other two independent candidates, Jill Stein of the Green Party and Cornel West, have also only recently been consistently polled.
Taken together, the polls show a confused muddle of possible results with both major candidates realizing they can't afford not to attack Robert F. Kennedy.
Both Trump and Biden want to attract a voter like Mike Panza, who lives in Michigan.
"I'd like a return to the middle of the road," said Mr Panza, 44. "His stance on health care is really appealing. Kennedy wants to make people healthy, he wants to make the country healthy."
Whom did Mr. Panza vote for in 2020? Donald Trump.
Those of us living in a partisan bubble have a hard time understanding Mr. Panza. If he sees Robert F. Kennedy's potential presidency as a "return to the middle of the road." I am Donald Duck, right?
Perhaps Goofy is a more apt analogy.
It's what makes the 2024 election nearly impossible to analyze, much less predict. Everything is a jumble and the old verities, the old partisan markers that made political analysis a combination of science and soothsaying have now pulled the rug out from under science and left it in the hands of gypsies.
Michigan is a perfect example. Biden was heavily damaged among Michigan Muslims for his position on the Israel-Hamas war. Muslims are not a huge faction in Biden's coalition but they're significant nonetheless.
But every vote for RFK in Michigan is a potential lost vote for Trump in what promises to be a real nailbiter in the Great Lakes State.
"Given the status of politics in Michigan right now, I would say he's probably more damaging to Trump," said Corwin Smidt, a politics professor at Michigan State University. "But it's a very uncertain situation."
That's why Trump has recently taken to railing against RFK on Truth Social.
“RFK Jr. is a Democrat ‘Plant,’ a Radical Left Liberal who’s been put in place in order to help Crooked Joe Biden, the Worst President in the History of the United States, get Re-Elected. A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him. Junior’ is totally Anti-Gun, an Extreme Environmentalist who makes the Green New Scammers look Conservative, a Big Time Taxer and Open Border Advocate..."
Kennedy has a higher favorable rating among GOP voters, meaning he could potentially draw even more support from Trump.
A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters released Wednesday shows support for Kennedy at 16 percent, with Trump and Biden deadlocked at 37 percent each and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West both receiving 3 percent support. According to the poll, more Republican voters find RFK Jr. favorable than Democrats — 44 percent of Republican voters expressed a favorable opinion of Kennedy, compared to just 11 percent of Democrats.
As November approaches, both candidates have sought to distance themselves from the renegade independent, with the Trump campaign decisively shutting down claims from RFK Jr. that the former president has approached him to join his presidential ticket.
“If the Trump campaign doesn’t see this as a concern, then they’re delusional,” Republican consultant Alice Stewart said. “They should be looking at this from the standpoint that they can’t afford to lose any voters — and certainly not to a third-party candidate that shares some of [Trump’s] policy ideas.”
What is rarely discussed is the "Ron Paul Effect" on the GOP vote. Where did all those Ron Paul primary voters from 2008 and 2012 go to? They voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, but what about 2024?
"Political scientist Lee Drutman writes, 'The simplest explanation is that RFK Jr’s campaign is channeling an anti-system, anti-two-party, anti-elite, smash-the-system energy that has grown considerably over the last decade, to the point that it can now support a third party candidate.'" I wrote that earlier this month.
These look a lot like Ron Paul voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Would they stick with Trump or vote for Kennedy in 2024?
Pulling support equally from both candidates is bad for Trump. He needs every vote in battleground states he can get, which is why he's going after Kennedy hard recently.
It remains to be seen if that's a strategy that can work.
