The United States is expected to veto a Gaza cease-fire in the UN Security Council today but is expected to introduce a cease-fire resolution of its own. The resolution is sponsored by Algeria on behalf of several Arab states and would call for an immediate cease-fire to allow humanitarian aid to flow to Gazans.
The U.S. is concerned that the Arab cease-fire resolution will interfere with U.S.-led efforts to broker a six-week cease-fire that would see the release of all remaining Israeli hostages and allow for humanitarian aid to reach the civilians in Gaza.
It's difficult to see how Israel could start up military operations after a six-week pause.
The U.S.-sponsored Security Council resolution calls for a six-week pause in fighting and the gradual release of all Israeli hostages. But it also calls on Israel not to start offensive military operations in the southern Gaza town of Rafah. It's the last Hamas stronghold, and Israel says the last four battalions of Hamas fighters are holed up in the city.
The U.S. resolution would "underscore its support for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as practicable, based on the formula of all hostages being released, and calls for lifting all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale."
The draft U.S. resolution began circulating on Monday, and the U.S. delegation is saying that it wants input from other parties before asking for a vote.
The U.S. draft text "determines that under current circumstances a major ground offensive into Rafah would result in further harm to civilians and their further displacement including potentially into neighboring countries."
Israel plans to storm Rafah, where more than 1 million of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza have sought shelter, prompting international concern that an assault would sharply worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The U.N. has warned it "could lead to a slaughter."
The draft U.S. resolution says such a move "would have serious implications for regional peace and security, and therefore underscores that such a major ground offensive should not proceed under current circumstances."
Biden is thinking of a refugee spillover into Egypt if Israel attacks Rafah, which would likely destabilize the already rocky military dictatorship. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not likely to relent now that he's so close to achieving his primary war aim of "destroying Hamas."
But Netanyahu risks alienating Israel's most important ally by ignoring Biden and going ahead with the attack on Rafah.
"The simple fact that the U.S. is tabling this text at all is a warning shot for Netanyahu," he said. "It is the strongest signal the U.S. has sent at the U.N. so far that Israel cannot rely on American diplomatic protection indefinitely."
Under Washington’s pressure, the IDF has developed a plan for removing civilians from Rafah into temporary camps in empty areas inside the Strip. Military observers in Israel estimate that the plan could be executed within the next four weeks, after which the IDF would be able to enter the town and work to defeat the remainder of Hamas’s military force.
Either way, Israel is determined to realize the goal it vowed to achieve after the October 7 terrorist invasion, including by conquering Hamas at Rafah. “Those who want to prevent us from operating in Rafah are essentially telling us, ‘Lose the war,’” Prime Minister Netanyahu said during a press conference on Saturday. “I won’t let that happen,” and Israel “won’t capitulate to any pressure.”
If Biden thinks he can divide Israelis over Rafah, he's sadly mistaken. Benny Gantz, Netanyahu's primary political rival, stated that “if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue everywhere, including the Rafah area.”
Ramadan falls on March 9 this year, giving the Israelis about three weeks to evacuate civilians from Rafah.
“Those who want to prevent us from operating in Rafah are essentially telling us, ‘Lose the war,’” Netanyahu said during a press conference on Saturday. “I won’t let that happen,” and Israel “won’t capitulate to any pressure.”
Biden is in danger of alienating both his Jewish and Muslim constituencies. That certainly doesn't bode well for November.
