Israel and Hamas have agreed to pause the fighting for another two days, presumably leading to the release of more hostages and more humanitarian supplies entering Gaza. But the longer the pause in fighting continues, the harder it will be for Israel to restart the war.
Hamas is well aware of this and is releasing the hostages with agonizing slowness. Meanwhile, the terrorists are able to regroup and refortify their positions. But with the hostage exchanges proceeding apace, the domestic and international pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt military operations entirely will continue to grow.
The Israeli public doesn't want a repeat of October 7 when Hamas murdered 1,400 people in Israel. But the hostages have become the primary reason to continue the war, not the destruction of Hamas as Netanyahu has said.
Joe Biden is urging Netanyahu to continue the pause in fighting until all the hostages are released. At the rate the exchanges are going now, it would be close to Christmas before all the hostages were allowed to go home. Given that time frame, world opinion and domestic opposition might prevent Israel from restarting the conflict.
That's why Israel has put a cap on the number of days for a pause in the fighting.
U.S. officials are pushing for a longer string of days without fighting to release hostages and allow humanitarian aid into the enclave. Israeli officials have told counterparts the maximum number of extra days they are willing to allow is 10 before they seek to resume military operations, said people familiar with the matter. Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas, and officials are uncertain whether Israel can be persuaded to back off its 10-day limit amid the push to release as many hostages as possible.
Netanyahu, speaking over the weekend, vowed to continue fighting after the current phase of hostage negotiations. “We will return with full force to achieve our goals: the elimination of Hamas; ensuring that Gaza does not return to what it was,” he said.
Israel's dilemma is that it must either go through with its war aims of destroying Hamas and permanently changing Gaza or hand Hamas a sizable propaganda victory.
If Hamas were able to survive the war and maintain its hold on Gaza, radicals across the Middle East would take heart and gain in popularity. The diplomatic initiatives between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Arab world would falter.
That's why Netanyahu must ignore the pressure from Biden and Western Europe and restart the war even if all the hostages have not been released.
Conrad Black writing in The New York Sun:
Whatever may happen with the hostages, the strategic realities and moral imperatives of the contemporary Middle East require that this opportunity to extirpate Hamas as a military and terrorist force which Israel has every justification to do, not be squandered. Again, it is difficult to be confident, much less certain, of exactly what the Biden administration is telling the Israeli government. There seems, though, no doubt that it is strongly encouraging this pause.
There is now solid bipartisan support in the Congress and professed solidarity in the administration for a large military aid package for Israel and all polls indicate solid American public support for this action also. It is outrageous to see mobs in front of the White House smearing red paint on the gate posts and holding up banners accusing the president of genocide. The idea that any such allegation could be made against Israel or anyone who supports Israel of all countries, is incomparably scandalous given the horrifying genocidal assault upon European Jews within living memory. And whatever criticism may be leveled against Mr. Biden, it does not include ambivalence about genocide in any circumstances.
Biden is caught between wanting to support Israel, our best ally in the Middle East, and his rabid left-wing base, which sees Israel as an occupier and the Palestinians as justified in using terror tactics to destroy them. He will need that left-wing energy to win in 2024, so he will not risk a complete break with them.
This is bad news for Israel. Whoever replaces Biden on the ticket will not be as strong a supporter of Israel, given that the replacement candidate will be further left than Biden on almost every issue.
