It’s safe to assume that since Russian troops are not bivouacked in Kyiv, the war in Ukraine has been going badly for Vladimir Putin and the Russian army.
But a British military intelligence report claims that Putin has taken operational control of military movements in Ukraine after relieving several senior officers of their command. His reach extends at least to the brigade level as senior officers in the Russian army have lost the president’s confidence.
U.K. military intelligence reports Tuesday morning that the Kremlin has fired Lt. Gen. Serhiy Kisel, commander of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv. International attention has focused on the strategically critical northeastern Ukrainian city in recent days following news Ukrainian forces capitalized on Russia’s retreat and had pushed the invading troopss back to their border. The commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Vice Admiral Igor Osipov, has also come under suspension likely for allowing the flagship cruiser Moskva to sink in April from an apparent missile attack – for which the Ukrainian military claims credit.
British intelligence claims that Russia has lost a third of its attacking force in Ukraine. That may be one reason why Putin has decided to micromanage the conflict.
But this is a strategy that guarantees failure. And it places senior officers in harm’s way.
“A culture of cover-ups and scape-goating is probably prevalent within the Russian military and security system,” according to the assessment. “Many officials involved in the invasion of Ukraine will likely be increasingly distracted by efforts to avoid personal culpability for Russia’s operational set-backs.
The assessment suggested that the developments will likely place further strain on Russia’s centralized model of command and control, as officers increasingly seek to defer key decisions to their superiors.
“It will be difficult for Russia to regain the initiative under these conditions,” it said.
When Russian units can’t move forward — or backward — without the OK of a senior officer, opportunities will be wasted and troops may be placed in danger unnecessarily. Contrast those guidelines with the way that Western armies operate.
Professional soldiers in Western armies are trained to spot opportunities to carry out their orders based on shifts in an enemy’s position or readiness, or the contours of a battlefield — critical knowledge that is lost on a political leader far from the front.
Putin is riding the whirlwind with no guarantee of a safe landing anywhere. A turnaround by his military isn’t impossible, but it’s looking more like a shattering defeat for an army that many thought should have performed far better than it has shown so far in Ukraine.
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