Russia has decided to cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria — two NATO countries on the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Putin is trying to drive a wedge into NATO’s weak flank by starving the two countries of fuel.
This is an escalation by Putin, who in turn was escalating after a move by NATO to supply Ukraine with heavier weapons. That action forced Putin to threaten Poland.
You don’t have to be a strategic genius to see what might happen when two nuclear powers play an escalating game of tit-for-tat. Eventually, one or both sides see an advantage in escalating before the other and things rapidly get out of control.
Poland has been a major gateway for the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and confirmed this week that it is sending the country tanks. Bulgaria, under a new liberal government that took office last fall, has cut many of its old ties to Moscow and supported sanctions against Russia over its invasion. It has also hosted Western fighter jets at a new NATO outpost on Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast.
The gas cuts do not immediately put the two countries in dire trouble. Poland has been working for several years to line up other sources of energy, and the continent is heading into summer, making gas less essential for households.
Yet the cutoff and the Kremlin warning that other countries could be next sent shivers of worry through the 27-nation European Union.
They really shouldn’t worry so. If Putin stops selling gas to his major customers in the UK, Germany, and France, he’ll run out of cash to pay for his war of aggression against Ukraine.
But that doesn’t mean the European governments can’t do some virtue signaling.
“The announcement by Gazprom that it is unilaterally stopping delivery of gas to customers in Europe is yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as an instrument of blackmail,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement on Wednesday.
“This is unjustified and unacceptable. And it shows once again the unreliability of Russia as a gas supplier.”
She said they were continuing to work with international partners to get access to alternative sources of natural gas and noted that a “coordinated EU response” was in the process of being crafted.
They are helping a Russian enemy by buying weapons and supporting a coalition that is helping kill Russian citizens. If I were Putin, I would think a little “blackmail” is justified.
But it’s not part of the narrative to blame Poland for their efforts to beat back Russia. They have been a staging area for weapons deliveries to Ukraine — weapons that are being used to kill a lot of Russians.
The EU and Poland should expect retaliation from Putin. But this deadly game of escalation and counter-escalation can’t be allowed to command the attention of both sides.
The chances for error are what’s really escalating. And in this game, the margin for error becomes narrower the longer you play.
