The frontlines in Russia’s war against Ukraine have barely moved for more than a week. There is some indication that Russia is in the midst of a resupply mission to its troops, but the simpler explanation is that Ukraine has throttled the Russian advance in all sectors and that Putin is either going to have to direct more resources to the war or alter his objectives.
Western intelligence experts are guessing when they say Russia is suffering about 1,000 casualties a day. Ukrainian government numbers are even more shocking. While there are indications that some of the combat has been incredibly intense, Russia has probably not had 24,000 troops killed or wounded in the 24 days since the invasion.
But according to the respected Institute for the Study of War, a D.C. think tank, Russia’s failures have led to a stalemate scenario that could be vicious and bloody.
The culmination of the initial Russian campaign is creating conditions of stalemate throughout most of Ukraine. Russian forces are digging in around the periphery of Kyiv and elsewhere, attempting to consolidate political control over areas they currently occupy, resupplying and attempting to reinforce units in static positions, and generally beginning to set conditions to hold in approximately their current forward positions for an indefinite time. Maxar imagery of Russian forces digging trenches and revetments in Kyiv Oblast over the past several days supports this assessment.[1] Comments by Duma members about forcing Ukraine to surrender by exhaustion in May could reflect a revised Russian approach to ending this conflict on terms favorable to Moscow.
That’s the only way that Putin will stop fighting; when he has terms favorable to Moscow. That means tens of thousands of civilian casualties and destroyed Ukrainian cities. It also means a bloody nose — and perhaps worse — a humiliation for the Russian military.
The World War I battles of the Somme, Verdun, and Passchendaele were all fought in conditions of stalemate and did not break the stalemate. If the war in Ukraine settles into a stalemate condition Russian forces will continue to bomb and bombard Ukrainian cities, devastating them and killing civilians, even as Ukrainian forces impose losses on Russian attackers and conduct counter-attacks of their own. The Russians could hope to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting under such circumstances by demonstrating Kyiv’s inability to expel Russian forces or stop their attacks even if the Russians are demonstrably unable to take Ukraine’s cities. Ukraine’s defeat of the initial Russian campaign may therefore set conditions for a devastating protraction of the conflict and a dangerous new period testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West. Continued and expanded Western support to Ukraine will be vital to seeing Ukraine through that new period.
As long as Zelenskyy feels that Biden and NATO have his back, he will resist. He’s certainly not going to get favorable terms from Putin. Russia will probably occupy some Ukrainian territory when the fighting stops, and Zelenskyy may be forced to accept the notion of neutrality.
The scenario of a stalemate would be bad for Putin but catastrophic for Ukraine. If he gets the chance, Zelenskyy will end the war as quickly as possible.
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