After the smash

After several ominous rumbles outside the tower the individual creaks have finally merged into a continuous roar. Brexit, the defeat of Hillary Clinton, the crumbling of the Iran deal, America quitting UNESCO, Trump dismantling Obamacare, consular withdrawal from Cuba, the pullout from the Paris accord -- these have piled on so fast they've acquired the character of a single collective event. Now the fall of Hollywood has followed like the inevitable comedic boulder right on Wile E. Coyote's head at the bottom of the gulch. Are we still in Kansas anymore?

It's becoming increasingly hard to believe the world can return to the status quo ante, even if Trump is impeached.  It's too far gone.  A whole landscape has vanished seemingly overnight going from the post-Cold War to the post-post Cold War; from a post-Modernist culture to post-everything in the blink of an eye.  Even the political scene is unrecognizable.  The Republican party is in shambles; the Democrats in disarray.

It is as if a demolition crew has cleared a site leaving only a vacant lot.  Some ask "when are the builders due?" Others more ominously ask "when are the zombies due?"

Nobody quite knows whether a new shopping mall or a giant haunted house will rise next. The "world" is still digging itself out of the rubble, picking itself up from the smash, alert for any more avalanches.  As Nietzsche put it: the comprehension of the biggest events requires a delay. "Lightning and thunder require time; the light of the stars requires time; deeds, though done, still require time to be seen and heard."

Yet some conjectures about what comes next can be made even at this early stage. The past will continue but differently. The intertwining of nations will surge on driven by improvements in transportation and communication but it will no longer be tightly controlled by the old "world institutions".  UNESCO may be one of the first post-1945 institutions to implode, it will not be the last.  Gramsci marched right through the institutions and clear off the cliff on the other side with the buildings tumbling after him. The established secular church of the Western left has fallen; it is now just another religion, like Christianity, Buddhism or Islam. Its special status as the high priesthood of the quasi-scientific Future is gone.

In security affairs the old East-West game payoff matrix has been replaced by a multidimensional array of new players many of them sub-national, some of them unknown.  The big wild card is technology. Disruptive technological change and new modes of warfare associated with them have upset the old calculus. North Korea, Iran are not outlier threats but leading indicators of the changed dynamic.  They are the first samples of a new threat coming onstream.