Belmont Club

Whistle Me Up a Memory

Obama Says Iran A Year Away From Nuclear Weapon — AP.

“Right now, we think it would take over a year or so for Iran to actually develop a nuclear weapon, but obviously we don’t want to cut it too close,” he said. “So when I’m consulting with Bibi (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) as I have over the last several years on this issue, my message to him will be the same as before: `If we can resolve it diplomatically that is a more lasting solution. But if not I continue to keep all options on the table.”

This probably means that Iran is going to get the bomb in about a year. In short order the Saudis and the Gulf states will have to get get their own. The administration will not hinder Iran any more than it could stop North Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan is building one of the largest nuclear arsenals on earth, rivaling that of France, the better to sell to the Saudis. This will compel India to arm up. South Korea is now talking about obtaining a nuclear weapon. One this happens Japan will inevitably build their own nukes. Australia then cannot be far behind.

And so the chain begins.

Despite its denials, the administration is “training Syrian anti-government fighters in Jordan … the training focused on use of anti-tank weaponry …” There are the usual provisos, but one would be foolish to rely on them. The conflagration in Syria can no more be completely firewalled then Libya could from the sub-Sahara.

Jordanian intelligence services are involved in the programme, which aims to build around a dozen units totalling some 10,000 fighters to the exclusion of radical Islamists, Spiegel reported.

“The Jordanian intelligence services want to prevent Salafists (radical Islamists) crossing from their own country into Syria and then returning later to stir up trouble in Jordan itself,” one of the organisers told the paper.”

The question was always, which to believe: what you knew was going to happen or what the administration assured you would happen. Now the choice has become acute. Perhaps the time for wishful thinking is over. Welcome to Hope and Change.

Events are now taking on a life of their own. Little by little, step by step, the world has come to the brink . It is brushing its toe against the precipice blindfolded with lies and comforted with fake assurances. ‘I cannot fall’. ‘I will get my free contraceptives’. ‘I will get paid according to the Lily Ledbetter act.’

How did the world get here? Simple. Step by little unthinking step.

To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death.

One of the most gripping moments in Paul Bracken’s The Second Nuclear Age is when he describes an actual wargame at his think-tank involving American and Israeli players facing the emergence of an Iranian nuclear threat.

Israel wanted to know concretely what the United States would do to stop Iran. The United States said that Iran wouldn’t be allowed to go nuclear. Now Teheran had done so … The U.S. team responded to the Israeli question with a message that Washington “would take all measures necessary”. But Israel wanted to know exactly what that meant. Would the United States join in a pre-emptive strike on Iran?

The US team was worried that the crisis would accelerate the bomb’s spread. There were secret Saudi Arabian and Egyptian nuclear programs. Japan, Brazil and Algeria were also possible candidates for going nuclear.

But the Israelis weren’t in any mood to receive a U.S. lecture … so they ordered two Jericho missiles alerted under a special plan certain to be photographed by American satellites … “We hope it leaks to the media … maybe we should make sure it does,” one Israel team member said.

Israel’s move forced a U.S. decision … So the United States publicly gave Israel a nuclear guarantee. Making it public was an escalation, because it put the American reputation on the line. If one atomic missile hit Israel …

several U.S. team participants expressed genuine frustration with the [game] designers for putting them in this terrible position. There was also anger at the Israel team and, actually with Israel. “Why the hell didn’t the United States force Israel to sign the NPT long ago, to give up the nukes? Then we wouldn’t be in this crazy situation,” one of them said.

Bracken’s account made fascinating reading.  It was the game designers fault for creating such an unrealistic scenario.  There didn’t have to be a plan for an Iranian nuke since President Obama would never let the situation arise.  No need to worry about it. It does not compute. So we were told. So some believed.

And now it’s on the verge of happening. Odds are it will happen.

While it would be emotionally satisfying to dwell on the what-might-have-beens, and to chastise “low information voters” for believing the blandishments of the hucksters, it’s really too late for that. The first and most important thing is to see things for what they truly are. Unless a miracle happens the nations are going to arm up.  Without a global sheriff the only likely alternative solution is a reversion to the Dodge City model.

Whistle me up a memory
Whistle me back where I want to be
Whistle a tune that will carry me
To Tombstone Territory

If your past has run afoul the law
It’s a handy place to be
But your future’s just a good as your draw
In Tombstone Territory

The Three Conjectures at Amazon Kindle for $1.99

Storming the Castle at Amazon Kindle for $3.99

No Way In at Amazon Kindle $8.95, print $9.99

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