AI is now able to convincingly simulate and in a growing number of cases replace movie actors.The fakes look just like the real thing. ”There's a new celebrity in Hollywood and her name is Tilly Norwood. Tilly is already causing major controversy because she is AI-generated. Tilly is the creation of a Dutch comedian who says 'multiple talent agents have shown interest in signing the AI actress.' AI protection was a key sticking point during the writer and actor strikes in 2023. They were wary of replacement. Now, their fears seem to be coming true.”
At the low end, AI is already well on the way to replacing stunt doubles and crowds. AI actors are never injured, never age, are cheaper, and don’t talk back to the director. A-list actors may still be “irreplaceable,” but for how long? It’s not just Hollywood that is worried; so is the newsroom. AI tools can scrape data (e.g., game stats, financial filings, social media etc.) and generate readable stories in seconds. The more complex the subject, the more AI excels. Investigative journalists relying on manual data sifting could be outpaced by AI, which can spot patterns or anomalies in seconds.
Perhaps nothing is so shocking as AI performance in radiology and pathology. Systems like those developed by Google Health or IBM Watson can now match or outperform radiologists in specific tasks, such as identifying breast cancer or pneumonia from scans. The same trend can be observed in computer coding, molecular visualization, routine engineering, and astronomy.
The one group that isn’t worried about being replaced is government officials. The obvious question is why, if AI can replace doctors, coders and, now, actors, it can’t ever replace politicians or educators. The recent scandals involving school superintendent Ian Roberts and the catatonic performance of candidate Abigail Spanberger suggest it cannot be on account of their superlative talent. Some have fake degrees and mediocre intellects. The probable reason for their job security is that politicians and educators represent a class of occupations where competence is not a qualification. Therefore they are not in competition with AI.
The professions where competence does not matter are in what we might call human systems. These have no or a limited connection to external reality. Human systems are isolated constructs where social dynamics, bureaucratic signaling, cronyism or nepotism determine entry and advancement in isolation from their consequences, sustained by external energy. In large organizations, hiring or promotion can hinge on meeting formal criteria (degrees, certifications, experience) rather than proven ability to do anything whatsoever. This can lead to "paper-qualified" individuals who lack practical competence. Not that it matters, because functionaries in such systems don’t actually do anything. Their actions only have meaning within the human system.
But politicians and educators will only remain AI-proof for as long as these human systems remain firewalled from the consequences of their actions. However, as society becomes more and more dependent on automated systems, this firewall will inevitably erode. For example, recently business transactions, banks, and airports stopped working in Kabul after the Taliban cut data cables without considering the consequences. Surprised, they hastened to reconnect them and smartphones started working again. The Taliban human system learned the hard way that external reality, which is intermediated by technology, could not be completely isolated from their theocratic system. By reconnecting the cables, the Taliban took one step closer to becoming replaceable by AI.
Yet the Taliban may have identified the strategy by which largely human systems can stay in charge. Only by cutting the link with technology – by living in the past – may such institutions as the Taliban escape the impending fate of the rest of the world. Even if the rest of the world were taken over by AI, the Taliban might still survive in splendid isolation.
As for the rest of us, the "magic" net draws ever closer despite our efforts. Greta Thunberg sailed across the Atlantic in Malizia II, a 60-foot racing yacht equipped with solar panels and underwater turbines in 2019, to attend UN climate summits, the activist refusing to fly because of aviation's high carbon emissions. There was no sense of irony from Thunberg, no belated realization at all the carbon that went into the making of the yacht made a mockery of her environmentalism. Our political class can no more connect stuff in the store to reality than the Pashtun could link cutting cables to the resulting Internet outage. We don't see the cow behind the slab of beef or the Chinese factory underlying the camera drone. It’s all magic.
Because the magic spreads, one day technology might actually abolish politicians and school boards. One current attempt is the network state. “Technology has allowed us to start new companies, new communities, and new currencies. But can we use it to create new cities, or even new countries? A key concept is to go cloud first, land last — but not land never — by starting with an online community and then materializing it into the physical world.” It will allow us to inhabit the groups we choose and privatize costs and benefits. The great benefit of a world of network states (NS) is you can avoid meeting anyone you disagree with. With VR glasses you can turn them into non-playing characters. You can exclude the Taliban from the NS and incompetent educators as well. It will be a lower-information world than raw base reality. It’s like going down a social media thread and never coming out again.There are certain disadvantages to restricting your network because to be surprised is the only way to learn. As Leonard Cohen put it:
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in
Yet perhaps AI dominion is not the end. At one level Elon Musk doesn't worry about nonhuman intelligence taking over the world because he thinks it's already happened. Musk thinks we most likely live in a simulation, that there’s a billion to one chance we’re living in base reality even now. For Elon, the interesting question, given we live in a simulation, is "what is outside the simulation?" Who runs the show? What is at the Boss Level? Confronting something bigger than us, whether aliens, AI, or God, has always been a disquieting prospect. As Blaise Pascal put it: “the eternal silence of these infinite spaces frightens me.” What is out there beyond those spaces? When God was smaller, He was not so scary. The great charm of our tinpot bureaucratic gods is that they are small enough to laugh at. But the real Boss, whoever it is? Not so much.
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