Let It Be

Yesterday this site argued that Syria’s attempt to distract attention from its own internal troubles by flinging protesters against the Israeli border would fail and it would simply add another layer of trouble to the area.  Today the New York Times reports that “armed gangs”, presumably linked to the insurgents, have killed as many as 80 police and security officials.  This suggests that Assad has either not gotten off the hook by attacking Israel or is going to up the ante by laying the pretext for a massive crackdown.

By the end of the day, state media said police and security forces were clashing with hundreds of armed men who had taken control of some areas of the town. But the state broadcaster showed no images from the town, despite scrolling text on Syrian television that spoke of a “massacre.”

Protesters could not be immediately reached in the area, but opposition activists repudiated any suggestion that antigovernment protesters had mounted such attacks. “I have seen no evidence of organized violence by protesters against the regime,” said Wissam Tarif, a Syrian human rights activist currently outside the country. “Protesters do not have weapons they could even use against tanks and helicopters, which the regime is using.”

The Wall Street Journal adds that Syria is tying the insurgents in the public mind with foreign agents, which dovetails well with the anti-Israeli drumbeat. “The government has characterized Syria’s three-month-old protest movement, largely inspired by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, as instigated by armed and extremist groups and backed by foreign agents bent on destroying Syria. State television said the families of Jisr al-Shoghour were urgently appealing for the army to intervene.”

There are signs that Syria is trying to fight its way off the ropes. Another NYT article reported that the regime killed 38 people in the northern province of Idlib using helicopter gunships and armored vehicles.

Meanwhile, Shi’ite militias are stepping up their attacks on the remaining US installations in Iraq. A recent barrage has killed 5 soldiers. The AP says “the militants’ goal appears twofold: to give the impression that they are driving the withdrawing U.S. forces out of Iraq, and to make the U.S. think long and hard before agreeing to any Iraqi request to keep a contingent of troops in this country beyond the end of the year.”

“Iranian-backed militias are flexing their muscles and have steadily increased military pressure on U.S. forces since rumors first started in the early spring concerning an extension of the U.S. presence,” said Michael Knights, an Iraq analyst at the Washington Institute.

This comes as Yemen teeters on the brink of an uncertain future. The VOA writes that President’s Saleh’s departure for Saudi Arabia to seek treatment for wounds he received in a rocket attack means that US policy in the Arabian peninsula is at an important crossroads:

analysts say his departure, whether temporary or permanent, is something of a blow to U.S.-led counter-terrorism efforts.

Yemen is home to what is generally agreed to be the most potent offshoot of Osama bin Laden’s original al-Qaida – al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP. Kate Nevens, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the British think tank Chatham House, said Saleh skillfully parlayed fears of terrorism into aid and support.

“The U.S. administration has been pouring money into Saleh’s family, into his son Ahmed and his nephew Yahya, to run elite counter-terrorism units in Yemen,” said Nevens. “This transition means that Saleh’s family lose power, the U.S. will lose their counter-terrorism allies and will have to renegotiate some kind of deal in Yemen. Whether al-Qaida in Yemen will be able to take advantage of this remains to be seen, I think.”

President Obama is facing the most important set of challenges in the region since he assumed office. The last three months have seen the primacy of his Afghan strategy challenged, the engagement policy upended and his relations with Israel set on their ear. Now the questions before the administration include the future of Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Iraq and Yemen. How should he respond to the thrusting tactics of Syria and Iran? Omri Ceren at Commentary says that President Obama’s “nuanced foreign policy” now lies in ruins. But it is not clear what succeeded it.

Both Washington and its regional foes appear to be unwittingly upping the ante; the administration by aimlessness and Syria and Iran by recklessness. The passivity of the White House may in fact be emboldening the both Damascus and Teheran. The interaction of their respective strategies is fueling, rather than managing the dangers to the region.   The region has not gotten less volatile in 2011. The old certainties are gone. Most everyone is now making it up as they go along.