Decision Desk HQ projects that Donald will be the next president of the United States. As of publishing time, Trump has 65 million votes to Harris's 60 million.
Trump and Harris were in a virtual tie leading up to the election, but Harris had a huge cash advantage. The vice president raised over a billion dollars and benefitted from $585 million in outside money, while Trump raised $380 million with around $700 million in outside money.
Trump's poll numbers went up significantly after he was nearly assassinated in July, but the race flattened as Election Day drew near. The RCP Electoral College map projected 211-219 for Trump with 108 tossups. Both sides claimed they were winning, but in the end, Trump prevailed with his America First campaign.
The 2024 race began not long after the 2020 election was decided. Trump announced in November 2022 that he would run again. In the GOP primary, he bested Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and a handful of also-rans. DeSantis and Ramaswamy dropped out after the January Iowa caucus, and Haley followed after Trump ran the board on Super Tuesday.
Biden announced he would run for a second term on April 25, 2023. By March, opponents Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips had suspended their campaigns, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had changed his party affiliation, clearing the field for Biden. What happened next proved that the Democrats don't really believe in "democracy" when it comes to nominating their presidential candidate. This chart from Wikipedia tells the story:
Joe Biden dropped out of the race after an embarrassing June 27 CNN debate with Trump, citing age and health. He quickly endorsed Kamala Harris despite calls from his own party for an open convention. Harris, who received not a single primary vote, became the Democratic nominee seemingly with the wave of a magic wand.
In 2020, Joe Biden got 306 votes to Trump's 232. In 2016, Trump won with 305 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton's 227. We are still waiting for races to be called in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Maine.
Recall that a Trump win was rated as "unlikely" by most media and polling forecasts in 2016, but he ended up flipping Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, along with the "blue wall" of Michigan Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While pundits claimed Harris and Trump were in a virtual tie ahead of Election Day, it appears they were way off.
This was the 60th presidential election in U.S. history and the first since the 2020 redistricting cycle. Trump will be sworn into office for the second time on January 20, 2025
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