News & Politics

Iowa Caucus Live Blog—REAL TIME UPDATES

It’s Iowa caucus night, and results are pouring in. The Iowa Republican and Democratic parties have partnered with Microsoft to develop a new reporting app. Republican results are here, Democrat ones are here. PJ Media will be providing live updates as results come in—refresh this page for the latest results!

According to FiveThirtyEight’s politics editor, Micah Cohen, results came in spurts in 2012 (all times are Eastern): By 9 p.m., a mere 5 percent were reported, at 10 p.m. it reached 25 percent, 50 percent at 10:30 p.m., 90 percent at 11 p.m., and 96 percent at midnight.

Midnight: Final Thoughts

Three winners came out of Iowa tonight: Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Cruz won the Republican race, with 27.6 percent of the vote in the latest count. Rubio took third, as was expected, but he surprised everyone by coming within one percentage point of Donald Trump. Sanders is neck-and-neck with Clinton, with the race too close to call.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and real estate tycoon Donald J. Trump were the real losers of the night. Despite Trump’s bravado, he failed to pull off the win he had so confidently predicted. The guy who loved to bring up poll numbers as a sign of strength has lost in the one kind of poll that really matters. Skipping the last debate may have had an impact, but most will point to his weak ground game and the low ceiling of his support among Republicans.

Clinton may well win the night, but Sanders will get all the attention. Clinton remains the Democrat favorite, and the states after Iowa and New Hampshire will be much more friendly territory for her, but tonight was not her night.

Candidate drop-outs are also important—especially when it comes to Martin O’Malley. With O’Malley out of the race, moderate Democrats have no second choice to bolster as an alternative to Sanders in the event that Hillary is indicted.

11:56 p.m.:

Fox is saying the Democrat race is too close to call. Clinton and Sanders both give “did I win yet?” speeches, focused on their own campaign themes

11:50 p.m.:

FiveThirtyEight’s David Wasserman: “Remarkably, it looks like Rubio may end up winning five of Iowa’s 10 largest counties, and ZERO of Iowa’s other 89 counties. Yet this urban coalition may be his blueprint for victory nationally.”

In other tidbit news, 33 percent of Dow City, Iowa, went to Martin O’Malley, God rest his campaign.

11:46 p.m.:

93 percent reporting in the Democratic race—Sanders only 0.2 percent behind Clinton. Still a nailbiter, as midnight draws nigh…

Republicans only have 91 percent reporting, but things are winding down. Huckabee’s out, Rubio declared victory, and Cruz took the crown.

11:39 p.m.:

Cruz thanks PJ Media columnist T. Elliot Gaiser for his volunteering

Cruz still preaching, calls out powerful endorsements from Iowa Congressman Steve King, “Duck Commander” Phil Robertson, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, TV host Glenn Beck. “You know what scares the Washington cartel?” Cruz asks. The audience yells “Cruz!” He responds, “No, not really. What scares them is you,” the conservative grassroots.

11:28 p.m.:

Ted Cruz is giving a victory speech, talks about grassroots support, our rights come from our Creator, and usurping Obama’s phrase—”Yes, we can!” Praises his volunteers, calls them out by name. The strength of his campaign is “courageous conservatives standing up and speaking out and lifting us up in prayer.”

The next president of the United States will not be chosen by the media, will not be chosen by the Washington establishment, will not be chosen by the lobbyists but will be chosen by the most incredibly powerful force where all of our sovereign power resides … the people.

11:22 p.m.:

I know you’re dying for some more numbers.

Dems: 92 percent reporting. Clinton back up with 50.1 percent, Sanders down slightly with 49.3 percent.

Reps: 91 percent reporting. Cruz – 27.6 percent, Trump – 24.3 percent, Rubio – 23.1 percent, Carson – 9.3 percent, Paul – 4.5 percent.

11:20 p.m.:

Jonah Goldberg, pointing out the night’s winners:

11:15 p.m.:

By the way, #Diversity

11:00 p.m.:

And the free market, anti-Trump group Club for Growth gets a word in edgewise:

10:58 p.m.:

Trump likes Huckabee now!

10:55 p.m.:

And the Democrat race is down to single digits:

10:52 p.m.:

In other news, Jim Gilmore is trending on Twitter. He has broken TWELVE VOTES, guys!!

10:50 p.m.:

Huge GOP turnout didn’t actually push Trump over. Pundits will say his weak ground game hurt him.

Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver: “An argument against the ground game having been the sole cause of his defeat: Republican turnout tonight now projects to be around 180,000, well ahead of 2012’s total of around 120,000 voters and somewhat ahead of where most political watchers expected it to be.”

10:48 p.m.:

In other news, Bernie Sanders has edged up right behind Hillary Clinton. With 89 percent reporting, Clinton stands at 49.9 percent, Sanders at 49.5 percent.

10:46 p.m.:

Ladies and gentlemen, your Iowa caucus winner.

10:43 p.m.:

For those of you just tuning in, this is what the Iowa caucus looks like:

10:41 p.m.:

No comment.

10:40 p.m.:

That smile.

10:33 p.m.:

Another one bites the dust. Farewell, Mike Huckabee.

10:28 p.m.:

The parties haven’t finalized the results yet. Here are their updated numbers:

Democrats: 84 percent reporting. Clinton – 50.0 percent, Sanders – 49.3 percent. Oh, and this is a two-person race now.

Republicans: 84 percent reporting. Cruz – 27.7 percent, Trump – 24.4 percent, Rubio – 23.0 percent, Carson – 9.3 percent, Paul – 4.5 percent.

They’ve called it for Cruz, but I think the more notable winner of the night is Rubio—talk about outperforming expectations.

10:26 p.m.:

CNN’s Ben Ferguson touts Cruz’s victory over Trump:

10:24 p.m.:

Here’s USA Today with the final results:

10:21 p.m.:

Fox is almost ready to call the GOP race—Cruz well ahead, Rubio nipping at Trump’s heels.

10:18 p.m.:

This is big—Sanders’ strong supporters may not have yet been counted:

10:17 p.m.:

Is Brit Hume predicting Cruz wins the nomination if he keeps his lead tonight?

10:12 p.m.:

Democrats at 81 percent reporting. Hillary is down to 50.3 percent, Sanders up to 49.1 percent. The now-caput O’Malley still holds 0.6 percent, still ahead of Jim Gilmore.

Republicans at 80 percent reporting – Cruz at 27.8 percent, Trump at 24.5 percent, Rubio at 22.9 percent, Carson at 9.4 percent, Paul at 4.5 percent.

10:04 p.m.:

CNN reporting Martin O’Malley will suspend his presidential campaign. If Hillary is indicted, there will be no one but the smiling Bernie to welcome her concession.

10:02 p.m.:

Numbers – Dems: 75 percent reporting, Clinton steady at 50.4 percent, a strong 48.9 percent, O’Malley edges up to 0.6 percent, Uncommitted takes an astounding 0.1 percent!!

GOP: 71 percent reporting, Cruz hits 27.8 percent, Trump down to 24.7 percent, Rubio up to 22.5 percent, Carson at 9.4 percent, Paul at 4.5 percent.

By the way, former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are pitiful at 1.7 percent and 0.9 percent. Sorry, guys.

10:00 p.m.:

Could Rubio edge out Trump for second place?

9:58 p.m.:

Cruz supporters are triumphant (just don’t count those chickens…)

9:56 p.m.:

9:52 p.m.:

Time for some more numbers.

Republicans: 59 percent reporting. Cruz – 28.3 percent, Trump – 25.0 percent, Rubio – 21.7 percent, Carson – 9.7 percent, Paul – 4.5 percent.

Democrats: 72 percent reporting. Clinton – 50.5 percent, Sanders – 48.9 percent, O’Malley – o.5 percent.

A SPECIAL CONGRATULATIONS to former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, you have gotten a grand total of 10 votes!

9:48 p.m.:

Breaking News!!!!

9:42 p.m.:

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver: “It looks like Rubio will do well enough tonight to, at the very least, given party elites a good pretense for rallying behind him.” The Establishment may have found their anti-Trump.

9:36 p.m.:

Republican reporting up to 42 percent, little change. Dems up to 63 percent, Clinton still ahead (50.7 percent to 48.7 percent).

9:29 p.m.:

Marco Rubio is set to receive the endorsement of South Carolina Senator Tim Scott on Tuesday. Scott is the only black Republican in the U.S. Senate, and is Rubio’s second South Carolina endorsement, after Rep. Trey Gowdy, famous for his leadership of the Benghazi committee.

And for some serious news:

9:25 p.m.:

Dems up to 53 percent reporting. Clinton – 51.3 percent, Sanders 48.2 percent.

FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten on Cruz: “Candidates with late momentum in the polls and candidates who appeal to Christian conservatives have tended to outperform their polling.” Cruz is beating his entrance poll numbers, as Santorum did in 2012.

9:18 p.m.:

Cruz and Clinton still in the lead, Trump falls slightly, Rubio up.

Democrats reporting: 44 percent. Clinton – 51.3 percent, Sanders – 48.2 percent, O’Malley unchanged.

Republicans: 24 percent reporting. Cruz – 29.9 percent, Trump 26.6 percent, Rubio – 18.9 percent, Carson – 9.8 percent, Paul -4.4 percent.

9:10 p.m.:

Democrats reporting: 36 percent. Clinton – 51.5 percent, Sanders – 48.0 percent, O’Malley – 0.5 percent.

Republicans reporting: 15 percent. Cruz – 29.9 percent, Trump – 27.4 percent, Rubio – 18.7 percent, Carson – 10.2 percent, Paul – 4.3 percent.

9:05 p.m.:

Democrats reporting: 29 percent. Clinton – 52.2 percent, Sanders – 47.2 percent, O’Malley – 0.6 percent.

Republicans reporting: 14 percent. Cruz – 30 percent, Trump – 27.4 percent, Rubio – 18.7 percent, Carson – 10.3 percent, Paul – 4.3 percent.

8:54 p.m.:

Democrats reporting: 19 percent. Clinton – 52.9 percent, Sanders – 46.5 percent, O’Malley 0.5 percent.

Republicans Reporting: 7 percent. Cruz – 29.6 percent, Trump 28.5 percent, Rubio – 18.1 percent, Carson – 9.9 percent, Paul 4.3 percent.

8:44 p.m.:

Democrats are reporting 10 percent, with Clinton at 52.8 percent, Sanders at 46.6 percent, and O’Malley at 0.6 percent.

Republicans are reporting 4 percent, with Cruz at 31.1 percent, Trump at 30 percent, Rubio at 15.9 percent, Carson at 9.3 percent, and Paul at 4.4 percent.