The Washington Post is reporting that Team Biden may be figuring out that they don’t have the mandate to be radical nutjobs that they thought they did. Americans are beginning to understand that inflation is not transitory, energy prices will be a burden this winter, and COVID-19 is here to stay. These realities undermine Joe Biden’s promises during the campaign, and nothing is getting back to normal.
In these and other cases, a growing number of Democrats worry that the White House has repeatedly underestimated the scale of the challenges facing the country — exacerbating the party’s political problems and making its already perilous path to holding Congress in 2022 even more difficult. They acknowledge the problems presented by the unpredictable nature of the pandemic and an uneven economic recovery, but fear that the administration’s tendency to downplay the issues has only made things worse.
This article follows an amazing report from CNN about Vice President Kamala Harris as her poll numbers also crash. A recent poll from USA Today/Suffolk University put Harris’s approval rating at 28%, a historic low for a historic appointment. CNN describes infighting among Harris’s staff and a contentious relationship with the West Wing.
The overall numbers are bad for the administration and Democrats nationwide. However, one finding is becoming consistent across several polls, and studies that indicate that the progressive project might be over for a while if the republic makes it through the next three years intact. Democrats have long believed that demographics are destiny. One demographic is becoming increasingly frustrated.
In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, President Biden’s net approval rating is 41%. It may shock you to know it is being driven down by Americans aged 18-39. Voters over age 40 approve of Biden at a rate of 5%-8% higher than younger Americans. On the economy, the pandemic, and Biden’s accomplishments, the youngest cohort is at least as critical, if not more so than older Americans. They also have the dimmest view of the economy, with only 24% saying it is good or excellent.
While the cohort aged 18-39 appears most supportive of the spending bills touted by the Biden administration, a majority are also concerned that Biden will do too much to increase the size and role of the federal government in society. While they believe climate change is a serious problem, the plurality believes it is a long-term issue, not urgent. Less than half think the government should regulate carbon emissions strictly. The percentage of 18-39 year-olds who believe the Democrats are out of touch with the concerns of most people in the U.S. is six points higher than those who say the same about Republicans.
Related: Circular Firing Squad: Panicked Democrats Don’t Know What to Do About Kamala Harris (Or Joe!)
These findings mirror the themes in a recent study from Pew Research in a group they called the Ambivalent Right. 70% of them voted for Trump, and they are the youngest political typology in the Republican coalition. They are not fond of Trump or Biden, with 68% hoping someone else will run on the Republican side and only 20% indicating they approve of Biden’s job performance.
However, this group prefers a smaller government providing fewer services at a rate of 73% and thinks government regulation does more harm than good. The Ambivalent Right believes we should be open to people worldwide, but the survey does not delineate between illegal and legal immigration. They appear to prefer peace through strength with diplomacy. Over 50% say the Republican Party represents them well or very well, even though they are more likely to support abortion and legalizing marijuana.
This group could also account for the uptick in minorities voting for Republican candidates. They are the most racially and ethnically diverse typology in the Republican coalition. About 48% consider themselves middle class, and they are slightly more likely than the general population to have a college degree. While many people have commented about the increase in minority voters for Virginia Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin, there was another notable trend. The most significant swing between Trump and Youngkin was among voters aged 18-29. While 33% voted for Trump in 2020, 45% of this group selected Youngkin on Election Day this year. Those aged 30-44 had an 11-point swing from 39% to 50%.
Call it the “leave me alone” coalition. Members want a return to prosperity, a reasonable approach to environmental responsibility for the long term, and less federal involvement in their daily lives. Framing border security, responsible legal immigration, and a diplomacy-first approach to foreign policy align well with the majority of the Republican coalition under President Trump. Articulating how appropriate levels of immigration assists with wage growth is a voter education opportunity.
Republicans cannot afford to ignore these trends among younger voters as they figure out how to form a new coalition. William F. Buckley built one made up of unlikely allies to fight Communism. It is time to reengineer that model. The neocons of the Bill Kristol variety are gone, and good riddance. The GOP must figure out how to talk to this new group of younger voters with an appealing overarching theme. It appears that limiting the size and scope of the federal government might be an excellent place to start. Democrats can’t do that, thanks to their radical left-wing.
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