“Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” Joe Biden said in Warsaw during a speech marking the first anniversary of the War in Ukraine. If that’s the case, does Biden believe that Ukraine will be victorious?
The undoubted equation when it comes to war is that there must be a winner and a loser. One side or the other must prevail — unless both sides commit to negotiations. Neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have indicated that negotiations are possible at this point, which leaves the United States further out on a limb than should be comfortable with when discussing a conflict involving a nuclear power.
And that limb could be sawed off at any time. Giving Ukraine advanced weapons systems like the Abrams tank and HIMARS artillery — after explicitly saying it would never happen — is one thing. But supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighters and Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) would be an escalation that Putin would be unable to ignore.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, and he has a decidedly different take on how the Ukraine war will end.
“Of course, this will end as all conflicts do, at the negotiating table, but that is a decision for Ukraine to make. And what we need to do is put them in the best possible place to have those talks at an appropriate moment that makes sense for them,” Sunak said.
“But at the moment, the priority has got to be giving them the resources, the training and the support they need to push forward and create advantage on the battlefield,” he added.
Any whisper in the U.S. that suggests the U.S. should eventually urge Zelenskyy to negotiate with Russia is seen as defeatist, even traitorous. Donald Trump found that out with his recent comments suggesting that peace between Russia and Ukraine will only come if Ukraine gives up some territory.
Nevertheless, this was probably the most substantive point Trump has raised to date: In his vision, the solution to the crisis is to let Russia “take over” parts of Ukraine. The Republican apparently sees such an approach as credible, because there are “Russian-speaking areas” in Ukraine.
In case this isn’t obvious, let’s go ahead and note that this appeasement plan would reward Russia for attacking its neighbor, signaling to Putin that he can gain greater territory by force with the United States’ blessing. As other countries received the same message, it would likely encourage more wars and additional invasions elsewhere.
President Zelenskyy has promised to regain “every inch” of Ukrainian territory that Russia has won since 2014 and that Ukraine will not give up land for peace — including Crimea.
This is a recipe for endless war — a war that couldn’t help drag but the United States into it. As the U.S. invests more and more into a Ukrainian victory, the stakes for America get higher and higher. Eventually, Joe Biden has to be prepared to put the screws to Zelenskyy to make a deal that would give Russia some face-saving concessions in return for a Russian withdrawal from most of Ukraine’s territory. The alternative would be to join the fight and risk everything.
For Ukraine? Really?
But wouldn’t this “reward” Russia for the invasion? Any more such “rewards” and Russia won’t have an army left.
As well as Ukraine has fought, they, too, have suffered grievous losses. And the nation of Ukraine has been shattered as most of its major cities have been heavily damaged by Russia’s cruel bombardment. Its infrastructure has been nearly destroyed in many areas and the nation’s economy will be many years recovering,
Finding a path to peace is necessary now. And if Zelenskyy has to make the first move, so be it.
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