It’s the beginning of 2023, which means it’s a perfect time to write an overview for the 2024 Senate election.
Why so early? Frankly, it’s never too early to predict a slaughter of the Democrats. And 2024 is setting up to be a generational shift in the Senate’s partisan makeup as Democrats will be faced with defending 23 seats while Republicans will have to defend just 11.
For the Democrats, four of those 23 seats are held by Democrats in three red states — Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia — and one swing state (Arizona) with an incumbent who just quit the Democratic Party (Krysten Sinema) and is now an independent.
There are also 10 Democrats running who are 70 years old or older. How many of them will retire before the primaries is unknown, but considering the anti-Biden political climate, many of those Democrats may think seriously about leaving the Senate.
What this all adds up to is the probability of a GOP wipeout of Democrats in 2024.
The most vulnerable Democratic senators in 2024 are Jon Tester of Montana, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Only Brown has announced he’s going to run, and there are several Republican candidates considering taking him on.
As for the others, both Manchin and Tester are seriously considering retirement, according to sources close to both men, and Sinema may quit rather than be humiliated in a three-person race.
Among the Democrats, Sen. Tammy Baldwin has not officially announced her plans but told a local news station in December she was “widely expected” to run again in Wisconsin. In Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen is also planning on running for reelection.. In Pennsylvania, however, Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr., who is battling prostate cancer, said he is solely focused on that before he makes a 2024 final decision. “I just want to get through this,” he said on Monday.
Sen. Ben Cardin, 79, said he is undecided on running again in Maryland, while a spokesman for Sen. Angus King, a 78-year-old independent who caucuses with Democrats, answered an inquiry about whether he was running for reelection with a link to a local news story saying he is readying a campaign operation.
The Republicans have no incumbents in any serious danger, but some seats may open up due to a retirement or two.
Although Republicans have far fewer incumbents up for reelection, Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah) is one of them, and said Monday he has not yet made up his mind to run for his seat. Romney, 75, could face a tough GOP primary given his public breaks with Trump. Sen. Mike Braun’s retirement could also lead to a messy Republican primary in the red state of Indiana, where Rep. Jim Banks has announced he will seek the seat and the more establishment former governor Mitch Daniels is considering stepping in as well, over the objections of conservative critics including Donald Trump Jr.
As always, candidate selection is key. As long as Republicans keep putting up candidates that the voters are less than entranced with or are just bad politicians, the party will be limited in how many Senate seats it might pick up even in what’s shaping up to be a wave election.
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