Japan has risen from the literal ashes of World War II to become an economic superpower. There was barely a stick or a stone left standing in Japan in 1945, and the Japanese elites blamed the military.
Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution says, “The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” But gradually, as global threats from Russia and China rose in Asia over the decades, Japan modified its stance on pacifism.
They were able to do this thanks to their close relationship with the United States. But now, China has become an economic superpower and may be able to challenge the U.S. for global supremacy militarily in less than a decade.
Japan’s role has now become critical to American defenses and the defense of free people everywhere.
During the 20th century, when Europe played an outsized role in global politics, hundreds of thousands of Americans died preventing Germany from dominating Europe, and hundreds of thousands more with thousands of nuclear weapons defended the industrial heartland of Europe from Soviet machinations during the Cold War. If China can pull Asia into its orbit, it will achieve in the 21st century what Germany and the Soviet Union could not in the 20th.
The United States would not automatically lose its independence in this scenario, but it would be hard-pressed to defend itself, let alone to assemble a new coalition to defend the free world.
Japan chose sides long ago. And now, realizing that the balance of power is changing, the Japanese are taking the extraordinary step of doubling their defense budget.
“Unfortunately in the vicinity of our country, there are countries carrying out activities such as enhancement of nuclear capability, a rapid military build-up, and unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force,” said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Japan’s defense budget would be 2% of GDP by 2027.
A national security strategy document approved by the cabinet and quoted by AFP news agency described China as “the greatest strategic challenge ever to securing the peace and stability of Japan”.
It also noted that China had not ruled out the use of force to assert control over Taiwan.
China’s embassy in Japan responded by accusing Tokyo of making false claims about its military activities.
Critical to Japan’s security is the security of Taiwan. NRO’s Mike Watson points out the significance of Taiwan to Japan’s future.
A consensus is forming in Tokyo that keeping Taiwan out of China’s control is a national interest for Japan. The Chinese Communists’ rhetoric about “reunification” with Taiwan, which they have not controlled for a moment in the history of this galaxy, distracts from a core issue about Taiwan. The island sits along the trade routes that are vital for Japan’s economy. Fuel from the Middle East, food, and a significant portion of Japan’s other trade come from the southwest. If China gets Taiwan in its clutches, it will not only have Japan’s southwestern islands in easy reach; it will also have its hands around Japan’s throat.
What would a Japanese crash military build-up look like? As an island nation, Japan needs to defend against attacks from the sea, so it will look to build or buy anti-ship missiles, including 500 American Tomahawk cruise missiles with a 1200-mile range.
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The military will also spend $37 billion in building up its counterattack capabilities, including manufacturing hypersonic weapons. Japan will also beef up its cyber warfare operations and expand its capabilities in space.
All told, Japan will spend $315 billion over the next five years — the third-largest military budget in the world behind the U.S. and China.
One hundred years ago, Japan was a martial nation with a massive inferiority complex. That led to the militarization of the country and the crimes against humanity in the war in Asia, where Japanese troops literally raped their way across the continent, butchered whole cities, and spread a poisonous ideology that, thanks to the United States, was stamped out.
Korea, the Philippines, and other Asian nations suffered untold indignities at the hands of Japanese troops. And the nation that suffered the most was China, with 14 million dead, and another 100 million made into refugees.
China is still fighting World War II with Japan. They are likely to view Japan’s buildup as a threat. How that plays out in Eastern Asia will determine the fate of many nations, including, perhaps, the United States of America.
