It’s beginning to look a lot like 2010 for the Republicans. That year, Obama’s incompetence in managing what should have been a booming recovery ended up leading to anemic economic growth while his “signature” legislation — the Affordable Care Act — proved to be massively unpopular.
And the voters took it out on Democratic politicians.
Republicans gained 7 seats in the Senate and an astonishing 63 House seats, the most since 1948. All talk of “Democratic realignment” went out the window as the GOP took the House and almost took the Senate as well.
In 2022, Joe Biden has mismanaged an economic recovery from the self-inflicted wounds of the pandemic shutdowns. Beyond that, more than $5 trillion in federal spending — much of it unnecessary — has triggered a burst of inflation that shows no sign of abating despite the Federal Reserve’s desperate efforts to tamp prices down.
So, the conditions are ripe. The stage is set. The band has been engaged. And the invitations for the victory party have gone out. The only question left to answer is “how big will be the wave?”
Related: The Morning Briefing: Might Be Time to Chill Champagne for a Republican Governor Red Wave
In 2010, the writing was on the wall for Democrats when even deep blue seats were being judged at risk by political prognosticators. And in 2022, we’re seeing a repeat of that phenomenon. Seats in districts Joe Biden won by 8-20 points are becoming more competitive.
The Cook Political Report has issued a new report that made rating changes in 10 seats — all Democrats and all moved in the direction of the Republicans.
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans' direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J pic.twitter.com/rD40MW6vdw
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022
Four “likely D”seats and one “solid D” seat shifted to “lean D;” one “solid D” shifted to “likely D;” three “lean D” seats became toss ups and one toss up became a “lean R” seat,” according to Cook. The analysis comes amid a wave of polls predicting a GOP blowout in November.
All ten of the blue seats that were moved towards the GOP Tuesday swung for President Joe Biden by eight to 20 points in 2020, according to Cook. Democratic governors are performing poorly in blue states, where Republican candidates have successfully focused on crime and inflation to draw voter support.
The seats to watch in this report are the three “lean D” seats that became toss-ups and the Oregon-5 seat that was safely Democratic until radical candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner defeated incumbent Democrat Kurt Schrader in the primary. McLeod-Skinner is struggling against Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who is hitting the Democrat hard on crime and inflation.
But the “tell” in this report that points to a massive Republican wave is the rating changes in deep blue New York and California. New York’s 3rd district was a safe Democratic seat while Rep. Tom Suozzi held it. But his retirement left an opening for Republicans that they’re rushing to fill. Republican financier George Santos is facing off against Democrat Robert Zimmerman, a PR exec.
“Lee Zeldin’s momentum might sweep Santos into this +8 Biden seat anyway,” the Cook analysis said.
A New York Democratic strategist told The Post, “[Hochul’s] weakness and lack of coattails will definitely cause Democrats to lose seats in the House.”
Santos said the rating change is proof he can win.
“Our momentum within the district continues to rise because, unlike my opponent who is aligning himself with Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi, I am focusing on the core issues facing the district,” Santos said.
As I explained here, the chances of the GOP winning 60+ seats are very slim given that competitive seats have been redistricted out of existence. The Cook report puts the eventual GOP haul at 12-25 seats. My own estimate of 30 seats should probably be revised upward to 25-40. The reason it’s not higher is that we’re not seeing any great numbers of those “solid D” seats becoming “toss-ups.” In 2010, 8 “solid D” seats flipped to the GOP. That doesn’t look likely this time.
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