Many military and Russian analysts are claiming that the rout of Russian forces around Kharkiv is a “pivotal moment” in the war. It very well may be. Pro-Putin Russian bloggers are bitterly denouncing the military and even Putin himself for the sorry state of affairs that has led the Russian military to this low point.
As the Russians were being routed, scores of Russian soldiers were seen stripping off their uniforms and refusing to fight, according to Newsweek. They also reported that “Russian troops were switching to ‘terrorist’ tactics in parts of the Kherson region, where civilians in the settlement of Velyka Oleksandrivka were being used as ‘human shields.'”
Related: Russia Routed in Kharkiv Counteroffensive
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the opening of a new Ferris wheel in a Moscow park, commemorating the 875th anniversary of Moscow’s founding. This is in keeping with Putin’s “business as usual” campaign to placate civilians during the war.
But the reality is beginning to hit home. And the big question for the world is, what next? What will Putin do if he begins to lose the war and is threatened with removal?
One Ukrainian/Russian analyst,
Yet I also implicitly understand a dark truth: the worse Vladimir Putin’s army fares on the battlefield, the more of a threat he becomes to the entire world. It’s a counterintuitive reality, but a very serious one. This offensive is precisely the kind of development I fear might render Putin increasingly desperate, and thus, dangerous.
The moment right before his regime collapses will be the most perilous for the world, when Putin could conceivably reach for any one of his many nuclear weapons, to prevent outright military loss in Ukraine, and save himself from being toppled. After all, if Russia’s conventional forces are routed, tactical nuclear weapons would presumably become the next logical step for a regime desperate to avoid a complete military catastrophe.
There’s a very real risk of Putin doing something that is utterly insane to save his own skin. As they say, desperate men do desperate things.
I’ve been writing about this possibility for months, as Joe Biden has been arming Ukraine to the teeth and openly calling for Putin’s ouster. Responsible statesmen do not try to goad an unstable dictator armed with a couple of thousand nuclear weapons.
But no one ever said Joe Biden was responsible. His declining mental health coupled with Putin’s instability is an explosive mixture that could lead to unpredictable — and dangerous — results.
It is not in the interest of the United States for Ukraine — a corrupt, autocratic regime — to defeat Russia on the battlefield. There is no compelling U.S. national interest for Ukraine to win this war. In fact, a negotiated settlement is far preferable for the United States, if not Ukraine. And the biggest problem for the United States and the world is that Vladimir Putin cannot lose the war and survive.
Ziperovich, a pro-Ukrainian writer, recognizes this moment of extreme peril.
The Western world simply doesn’t have the luxury of not thinking about these issues, and working to prevent this war from spinning utterly out of control. While it’s emotionally satisfying to call for Putin’s head, that may not be the wisest course of action.
I’ve been called a naive rube and worse for calling for renewed diplomacy with Russia, but I’ll risk that label. Eventually, Ukraine must try to leverage its mounting progress on the battlefield into some kind of negotiated peace, backed by the White House and NATO. Diplomatic conduits to the Kremlin must be explored, in Tel Aviv, Beijing, Ankara; Washington should feel out whomever is still talking to the Kremlin, and see if negotiations are a possibility.
Peace must be the ultimate goal here, even as the fighting continues. In that brief window of time right before Vladimir Putin is toppled, when he could theoretically use nuclear weapons, there should be another option available to him: diplomacy.
Moral maximalism won’t end this war.
It’s strange that the “peace faction” of the Democratic Party has suddenly lost its voice. In fact, few politicians are opposing Biden’s war. Despite the stakes being higher than at any time in the post-World War II world, with nuclear war being a real possibility, no prominent Democrats are calling for negotiations or even a reduction in lethal aid to Ukraine.
If this is, indeed, a collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine, the endgame — not matter what it will be — won’t be pretty for Vladimir Putin.
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