Joe Biden and America’s NATO allies have slapped sanctions on Russia for Putin’s preliminary gambit into Ukraine and, as expected, they proved to be ineffective. As many observers outside of the White House and Democratic Party were saying prior to Putin’s order to send troops into the disputed eastern provinces of Ukraine, it might have actually deterred Putin if the sanctions had been imposed while the Russian military was still preparing for its invasion.
But that’s not how the game is played. The rules, created by men in striped pants and ascots 150 years ago, would have seen such a bold move as being “impolite.” It wouldn’t have been “proportional.” God forbid our side would take every possible advantage in a crisis and crush any move to wreck the international order.
Instead, Biden and EU leaders haven’t even imposed all the sanctions they promised would occur in a Russian invasion. It’s only a little invasion, after all, so no reason to give Russian banks the international death penalty or cut off Putin’s line of credit at Saks.
The excuse being used by Biden for not bringing down the wrath of God on Putin with serious, crushing sanctions is that he and the other NATO leaders are hoping to negotiate a solution to the crisis so that tens of thousands of civilians are spared and a million or so Ukrainians don’t have to become refugees.
The problem with that scenario is that Putin has already flatly rejected NATO proposals as inadequate. Putin is not interested in diplomacy, which is why it never had a prayer of being successful from the outset.
Biden ordered measures to block companies from doing business with VEB bank and the country’s military bank, reduced the ability of Russia to access international financing, and imposed some restrictions on some Putin cronies and their families.
Putin, no doubt, couldn’t keep a straight face in reading those sanctions. There are other Russian banks that have complete access to international financing and haven’t been sanctioned. And sanctioning cronies has never worked, given the numerous ways to get around them.
Biden’s problem is that all of the mild or symbolic sanctions have already been imposed following Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. The possible sanctions that remain — including the most devastating of all, kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system that moves money from bank to bank — could ignite a war.
For the U.S. and its European allies, cutting Russia out of the SWIFT financial system, which shuffles money from bank to bank around the globe, would be one of the toughest financial steps they could take, damaging Russia’s economy immediately and in the long term. The move could cut Russia off from most international financial transactions, including international profits from oil and gas production, which in all accounts for more than 40% of the country’s revenue.
Allies on both sides of the Atlantic also considered the SWIFT option in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. Russia declared then that kicking it out of SWIFT would be equivalent to a declaration of war. The allies — criticized ever after for responding too weakly to Russia’s 2014 aggression — shelved the idea.
Another very tough measure NATO could take is to impose export-import controls on Russia. Export control measures could halt Russia’s ability to import technology like smartphones and key aircraft and automobile components. It could cripple Russia’s manufacturing sector.
Putin has no doubt factored all of this into his decision to invade Ukraine, which is why the only deterrence left is for NATO to throw every sanction they can at Russia now before Putin begins his main invasion. To hell with “proportionality” and a “measured response.” This is the post-World War II international order that’s at stake. And Biden appears ready to surrender because he wants to play it safe.
There’s something to be said for caution. But with the stakes so large, Putin seems perfectly willing to gamble.
Why not Biden?
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