The non-partisan Cook Political Report was busy this past week, changing the status of governor’s races for 2022. In eight of those races, Cook changed its rating to reflect a more Republican-friendly political environment, especially in several pivotal swing states.
In three battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada — the rating went from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up” as the first-term Democratic governors in those states struggle against a growing red tide that threatens to overwhelm them on Election Day.
Other states that saw changes were Maine, New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, and South Carolina. Democrats remain slight favorites in the first three, but Iowa and South Carolina shifted from “lean Republican” to “solid Republican.”
In Maine, former Republican Gov. Paul LePage is seeking a rematch against Gov. Janet Mills, who succeeded him. Republicans have also targeted Democratic New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and term-limited Democratic Oregon Gov. Kate Brown — who one poll recently pegged as the most unpopular governor in the country — but Democrats remain favorites in the states which Biden handily won last November.
No high-profile Democratic challenger has sought to oust Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, Cook noted, while an unfavorable political environment for Democrats was the reason behind Cook’s decision to shift its South Carolina rating, despite former Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham’s candidacy.
Two races shifted from favoring Republicans to favoring Democrats. The retirement of Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker moved that race from “solid Republican” to “lean Democratic.” And Georgia’s governor’s race was upended this week when Georgia’s most famous crybaby, Stacey Abrams, announced she would seek the office. That race went from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”
In fact, the Georgia race for governor will be the most interesting of the cycle. Not only will Stacey Abrams be on the Democratic primary ballot, but on the GOP side, former Senator David Perdue has made it clear that he wants the job currently held by Republican Governor Brian Kemp. Kemp is on the outs with Trump because he refused to sign on to Trump’s claim that the election was stolen. It will almost certainly be one of the major tests in 2022 for how much influence Trump can bring to bear going into 2024.
