Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. What else can I say now that Donald Trump has proven me so completely wrong? I was certain he couldn’t and wouldn’t win. These elections were already over, I wrote. “Just look at the polls,” I explained, “no chance in hell he can make up for it!”
Obviously, I wasn’t alone in that. After all, I based my views on polls and other information (like new voters, demographics, etc.). Here’s the Washington Post declaring Trump’s candidacy dead on October 25th. That’s approximately two weeks ago. Just hours before election day, the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton an 80% chance of winning (and more!). The same went for most other newspapers and websites. Even FiveThirtyEight — which is known to be very, very careful — gave Hillary a 70% chance. Trump had to settle for slightly less than 30%.
Clearly, then, the pollsters and other experts missed something big. Trump was scorned and made fun of when he said he was heading a “movement.” Well, he was clearly right.
What I’ve learned from this?
- Don’t trust the polls.
- Don’t do any predictions. Share your opinion, report on the news, but let the chips fall where they may. Nobody can predict the future, not even those who are paid for it.
Oh, and although I can’t and won’t pretend to be happy with Trump — I think he’s as bad as Hillary Clinton — I’d like to congratulate Trump and all of his supporters. You fought for it and certainly deserve this victory.