Biden’s tanking poll numbers nationally and in key swing states spell big trouble for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections, says Democrat strategist Douglas Schoen. He says they could endure a “blowout defeat.”
“President Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies,” Schoen notes in an op-ed in The Hill. “Which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.”
Schoen served as an adviser to President Clinton and advised Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential campaign.
“Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing-states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job President Biden is doing by a margin of 7-points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week,” he continued. “Nationally, one-half [50 percent of voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve.”
Schoen noted that Obama’s net approval rating was 19 points higher than Biden’s right now, and yet in the 2010 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 64 seats in the House, and Republicans gained six seats in the Senate. In 1994, Democrats lost a net of 52 seats in the House, and Republicans gained eight seats in the Senate.
While there’s still more than a year before the midterms, Schoen acknowledged that “Democrats’ blowout midterm defeats in both 1994 and 2010 can be attributed in large part to their passage of massive spending and tax bills in the years prior.”
“The Democrats’ 1994 defeat came after they pushed through Congress the then-largest tax increase in history without any Republican support,” Schoen points out. “And in 2010, Democrats lost due in large part to voters’ perception of an ineffective economic stimulus, as well as governmental overreach on healthcare and the economy by the administration and congressional Democrats.”
History seems to be repeating itself as Democrats are pushing a $3.5 trillion spending bill, which even Schoen admits will not only bring massive tax increases, but also increase annual deficits, the national debt, and inflation. This, he believes, will likely spark an “electoral backlash” bigger than both 1994 and 2010.
Historically speaking, the party in power loses seats in midterm elections. Between Biden’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal and other bad policies, things aren’t looking good for him. While some in the party think there’s time to recover, Schoen suggests that things could actually get worse for the Democrats. He’s likely right. Last month, another Democrat strategist saw the writing on the wall and advised Democrats to steamroll their agenda while they still can. That seems to be the approach they’re attempting to take, apparently unwilling to realize that their radical agenda is what is causing the shift against them in the first place.