Daily Fantasy Baseball: Five Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
We’re almost two weeks into the Fantasy MLB season. Hopefully, you’ve gotten your feet warm playing on DraftKings and FanDuel, because both sites have some great big buy-in contests running tonight.
On FanDuel, you have the $200 Playboy Baseball Championship qualifier. The winner of the qualifier gets a seat in a 70-player live fantasy baseball tournament held at the Playboy Mansion, and 1st prize is $100,000.
And (if this is any incentive at all) you’ll get to meet me! I qualified on Wednesday night and will be heading to the Mansion in early June.
You. This guy. Playboy Mansion. C’mon.
On DraftKings, they’re hosting the $250,000 MEGA Perfect Game. This one is $300 to enter, but will award $50,000 for first place.
DraftKings has been very aggressive with their guarantees this year, and it’s likely this tournament doesn’t completely fill up. This means free added money to the prizepool, making this tournament very profitable. If you feel like taking a shot at higher stakes, tonight is the night.
Below are my five top plays for each site. Some of these players are only good plays on certain sites because of the salary differences, so keep that in mind when drafting your lineups. Good luck tonight!
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DraftKings Plays
Curtis Granderson (OF, $3,800) – Batting leadoff for the Mets, Granderson’s price is already too low regardless of the matchup. But he’s also at home and going against a reliever turned starter in David Phelps. Phelps has a projected 4.00 ERA as a reliever, it’s likely that he fares even worse as a starter.
Mike Trout (OF, $5,800) – My projection system has Trout as the best fantasy player tonight, performing 2 fantasy points higher than any other player today. This isn’t surprising. He faces Astros pitcher Roberto Hernandez, a pitcher with a weak K/9 of only 5.5 and a projected walk rate of 3.5BB/9. The Angels are projected to score almost 5 runs and are going to a hitter’s park in Houston. The only thing that is missing in this puzzle is that Trout is facing a righty, but Trout could make up for it with stolen bases. Hernandez has a -8 rSB, he’s one of the worst pitchers at holding baserunners in the MLB.
Ryan Braun (OF, $4,200) – Braun has had a really rough start to the season. He hasn’t topped 8 fantasy points all year and has yet to hit a home run. But in fantasy baseball, we trust the projections rather than recent performance, and Braun is still projected to be close to a .850 OPS hitter by Steamer this year. Furthermore, Braun has a career OPS of 1.036 against left handed pitchers, and he’s going up against lefty Jeff Locke tonight. It’s tough to take a player who has been so cold this season, but his cold start also has its benefits. Braun is usually a $5,000+ player. At $4,200 he’s an absolute steal.
Yasmani Grandal (C, $3,400) – This is mostly a play based on price. Grandal is a switch hitter, but he hits better from his left side, and he’s facing a weak righty in Kyle Kendrick tonight. He’s also been having a great season so far batting 2nd in the order for the Dodgers. But mainly, I just like Grandal because of his value, $3,400 is simply much too low for a hitter of his caliber.
Neil Walker (2B/3B, $3,500) – I’m not sure why Walker’s price has dipped so low, but I’m certainly taking advantage of it. The Pirates face a poor righty in Jimmy Nelson at home and Walker should be in the middle of the order. His .780 projected OPS by Steamer is on par with many players in the mid $4,000 salary range.
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FanDuel Plays
Michael Bourn (OF, $2,700) – The list of positives for Bourn tonight is massive. He’s leading off for the Indians who are projected to score the most points out of any team tonight. He’s also going against Mike Pelfrey, who has a slightly high projected walk rate (3.38/9 innings) and a catcher in Kurt Suzuki who’s very poor against base stealers (-9 rSB). Bourn isn’t an elite base stealer, but should swipe 20 on the year, so this matchup is very helpful for him. Lastly, the Twins Park is poor for lefties because of a massive wall in right field. But Bourn is not a power hitter, so that wall has little effect on his production. Minnesota is actually a great singles and doubles park, which fits Bourn perfectly.
Freddie Freeman (1B, $3,500) – Going from Turner Field, a pitchers park, to the Rogers Centre, a big home run park, Freeman should benefit from the change of scenery on the road. Toronto pitcher Drew Hutchison also has big splits, with lefties hitting at an .880 OPS against him in his career. $3,500 is likely the lowest we’ll see Freeman’s price this season, so he’s an obvious pick with these other factors in his favor.
Mookie Betts (OF, $3,100) – Ubaldo Jimenez had a fantastic first start for the Orioles, but sportsbooks aren’t totally buying it; the Red Sox are projected to score almost 4.5 runs tonight. Even if Jimenez keeps the Red Sox bats under control, Betts doesn’t even need put the ball in play to be a force, Jimenez’s long delivery makes him terrible at holding baserunners (-8 rSB in his career) and Betts is a solid base stealer. The old Ubaldo is a pretty wild pitcher as well, so if he reverts back to old form, all Betts needs to do is draw one walk and with a stolen base, and he’d already have a 3 point night. Betts has the upside as well, he’s capable of stealing 2 or 3 bases in this game and has HR power.
Chris Carter (OF, $2,600) – Here’s a fun stat, Chris Carter hits about 50% fly balls when he puts it in play, and has a career 1.179 OPS on those fly balls. This makes sense, Carter is a huge power hitter so any fly ball hit in play has a chance of leaving the park. Going against the Angels Jered Weaver, Carter fly ball right should sky-rocket. Weaver’s fly ball rate of 70% one of the highest in the league, so it would shock me if Carter hits any grounders tonight. It will certainly be homerun or bust for Carter, but his chance of hitting one out should be quite high tonight, making Carter a great GPP play.
Clayton Kershaw (P, $11,800) – One thing you may have noticed to start the season is that #1 pitchers have not done so well. In two games this season, Kershaw has had 12 fantasy points and 6.33 fantasy points, which is not what we want from a $12,000 pitcher. But don’t be fooled by this trend. Kershaw is without a doubt the best pitcher tonight dollar for dollar, and I would not recommend going cheap on pitchers. Sportsbooks have Kershaw as a -265 favorite, and project the Rockies to score under 2.75 runs. That’s despite his weak start to the season. And don’t forget how Kershaw wrecked the Rockies last season. In mid-June, he threw a complete game no hitter with 15 strike outs, worth 28 fantasy points.
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