As Republican Gabriel Gomez and Democrat Ed Markey enter the final stretch in the Massachusetts senate race to fill John Kerry’s vacancy, the polls are obviously in limbo. Some have Markey in the lead, while others show Gomez coming up from behind. As a result, President Obama and Debbie Wasserman Schultz are being deployed to the Bay State to prevent another Republican upset, and inject a shot of life into Markey’s slothful campaign. According to pollster John McLaughlin, this race is undeniably a dead heat – and one that could potentially end in embarrassment for the Democratic Party.
Survey Summary:
The results of our survey show the new comer, Republican Gabriel Gomez, has stolen the momentum in the special election to be held on June 25th. Gomez and long time Democratic Congressman Ed Markey are in a statistical dead heat, with Gomez receiving 44.3%, Markey 45.3%, and 10.5% undecided.
**If the special election were held today, which one of the following best describes how you are likely to vote in the special election for United States Senate between (ROTATE) Gabriel Gomez, the Republican candidate and Ed Markey, the Democratic candidate?
TOTAL
COMBO GABRIEL GOMEZ 44%
Definitely Vote Gomez 31%
Probably Vote Gomez 10%
Lean Gomez 4%COMBO ED MARKEY 45%
Definitely Vote Markey 28%
Probably Vote Markey 11%
Lean Markey 6%UNDECIDED 11%
**Ed Markey’s high unfavorable ratings are clearly impacting his ballot rating. With a one-to-one favorable to unfavorable rating, Ed Markey will have a difficult time increasing his ballot share. What’s more, the intensity lies with Markey’s unfavorable rating, as the plurality of voters, 29%, is “very unfavorable” to Markey.
Opinion Ed Markey
TOTALFAVORABLE 42%
Very Favorable 18%
Somewhat Favorable 25%UNFAVORABLE 42%
Somewhat Unfavorable 13%
Very Unfavorable 29%NEVER HEARD OF 14%
NO OPINION 2%**Conversely, nearly half of the voters, 48%, are favorable to Gabriel Gomez, and he receives a relatively low unfavorable rating of 27%. With a high favorable rating and low unfavorable rating, Gabriel Gomez is giving the voters a strong alternative to Ed Markey.
Opinion Gabriel Gomez:
TOTAL
FAVORABLE 48%
Very Favorable 21%
Somewhat Favorable 28%UNFAVORABLE 27%
Somewhat Unfavorable 12%
Very Unfavorable 5%NEVER HEARD OF 22%
NO OPINION 3%CONCLUSION
With less than 3 weeks to go to Election Day, Gabriel Gomez has the momentum in the race. Gomez’s high favorable ratings will be a strong asset over Markey’s high unfavorable ratings in this neck-and-neck race.
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