For months now, Democrats have been telling us that this is the year they flip Texas. If that sounds familiar, it should. Because actually, they’ve been saying "this is the year" for a long time. They thought they'd take the governor's mansion. They thought they'd grab a Senate seat. More than once, they even convinced themselves that Texas's electoral votes were up for grabs.
They've never pulled it off.
Now we're supposed to believe that Texas State Rep. James "God is Nonbinary" Talarico (D-50th District) is the Democrat who finally gets it done. So forgive me if the latest news out of the Lone Star State strikes me as more amusing than alarming.
Did I mention a new internal poll showing Paxton up?
2026 Texas Senate Poll 🔴 Ken Paxton: 48% 🔵 James Talarico: 45% Pulse Decision Science | 9/24-9/27 https://t.co/6Wl4TCJruB
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) September 29, 2026
On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), will start running ads to help Talarico by going after Republican Ken Paxton. The Times called the decision a show of "confidence" in Talarico and pointed to polling from the past few weeks.
ICYMI: Frank Luntz Just Gave Democrats Devastating News About the Midterms
That raises an obvious question. If Democrats are so confident that Talarico can win, why weren't they spending money on this race months ago? Until now, Senate Majority PAC had refused to put a dime into Texas. Why? Because Democrats saw Maine as the key to them flipping the Senate.
How are things in Maine, exactly?
Well, let’s think about that one. First, Maine Democrats nominated Graham Platner, a guy with a Nazi tattoo who was later accused of rape. The party swapped him out for Troy Jackson, who is basically Platner-lite. If you take a look at the polling out of Maine, I'd bet on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) winning this one.
Michigan isn't going much better. Democrats there nominated socialist Abdul El-Sayed, whose ties to leftist streamer Hasan Piker have become an embarrassment, and Republican Mike Rogers is doing well in the polls. There's even some hope for the GOP in Minnesota.
From where I sit, the Democrats' path to flipping the Senate keeps getting narrower. Even so, their big Texas move looks more like an act of desperation… though one without much muscle behind it. The PAC wouldn't say how much it's spending, for starters, and the ads will run only on YouTube and other digital and streaming platforms… no television.
Even the Times admitted that national Democrats aren't ready to go all in on Talarico.
So is this confidence or a false flag?
I've never believed Talarico had a chance in Texas, and the people cutting the checks don't seem to believe it either. If they did, they'd buy TV time in Houston and Dallas instead of sneaking a few spots between YouTube videos. Even though Democrats are suddenly spending money there, I think it's a ploy to get Republicans to burn resources defending a state they should win anyway, and that money could otherwise go elsewhere.
