I'm not going to be one of those guys who scream that the polls are fake and we’re actually winning big, but I've been doing this long enough to recognize the signs that public polling is off and to notice when even the candidate knows it.
Remember Ann Selzer's infamous final Iowa poll in 2024? It showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points. It shocked the entire country. It didn't take long to figure out that not even the Kamala campaign believed it. If her team had trusted those numbers, Kamala would have rushed to Iowa to lock down a stunning pickup. She never went. Trump went on to win the state by 13 points.
Iowa was never competitive. Ann Selzer, despite her reputation, was just wrong, wrong, wrong.
Michigan's U.S. Senate race is a different story.
It's definitely competitive, even though it probably shouldn't be. Democrats nominated socialist Abdul El-Sayed, and while most polls show him with a slight lead, he just handed us a huge sign that his campaign thinks he's behind.
El-Sayed built his political brand on Medicare for All. For years, he pushed a plan that would ban private insurance and force every American onto a single government plan. He even suggested repealing the Second Amendment and replacing it with a constitutional right to health care. What one has to do with the other, I have no idea, but make no mistake about it, this was never a side issue for him. It was the centerpiece of everything he stood for.
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His record on the issue goes back years and never wavers. In 2018, he argued that Michigan should replace its multiple insurance companies. The following year, he laid out exactly what his plan meant.
"Medicare-for-All is a single-payer healthcare plan," El-Sayed said in 2019. "That means that under Medicare-for-All, the federal government is the only payer."
That same year, he acknowledged that Medicare for All "eliminates your private" health care plan. He kept at it in 2020. "What Medicare for All does is it does away with the private insurance market. It now has one single payer…the government," he said. Around the same time, he declared that "Medicare for All comes in and says 'no more of this insurance industry,'" and described private insurance as a "middleman" that should be "cut out."
"We are going to create one insurer," El-Sayed promised in 2021. He also claimed his plan would eliminate private health insurance and create "one insurance program for everyone," while insisting the health insurance industry "does not need to exist" and "should not exist."
By 2022, his message hadn't budged. "I advocate for a government takeover of health insurance," he said.
Now El-Sayed is suddenly all for people staying on private insurance if they want to.
"If you would like to have a private insurer, above that, you're welcome to do that," El-Sayed says now, channeling his inner Barack Obama.
Abdul El-Sayed is a liar.
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 26, 2026
El-Sayed has already called to completely eliminate private insurance at least 10 times. https://t.co/66BzAxjAXO pic.twitter.com/zuEC0B7C83
Abdul El-Sayed is a total fraud.
— Republicans (@Republicans) September 23, 2026
He wants to ban your private health plan and force everyone on government-run healthcare.
👇 pic.twitter.com/9B4JnwElQH
Sorry, but if you're ahead and everything is going well, you don't flip-flop on an issue you've been consistent on for years. Candidates who like their numbers stay the course because it’s working. Nervous candidates start rewriting their records because they realize they need to appeal to middle-ground voters who will decide the election.
So it should come as no surprise that a new poll shows Republican Mike Rogers leading El-Sayed by 1.3 points.
🚨SHOCKING: Mike Rogers LEADS Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race by 1.3 points.
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) September 27, 2026
Michigan - 2026 Senate
🟥Mike Rogers 44.4% (+1.3)
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 43.1%
See all MI Senate polls @Pollsmax.
If Rogers wins this November, he would be the first Republican Michigander… pic.twitter.com/pKSmJJmBWk
Sure, it's one poll. But when El-Sayed is flip-flopping on his signature issue mere weeks before Election Day, it’s obvious he knows his campaign is in trouble.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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