It has been a brutal couple of weeks for Democrats. The U.S. Supreme Court declared race-based gerrymandering unconstitutional; Virginia’s gerrymander map fight blew up in their faces; Florida moved a new Republican-friendly map forward; and Alabama is now set to redraw its lines after the high court cleared the way. The maps are getting redder, and after years of Democrat line-drawing games, we’re finally seeing a course correction.
So why is Karl Rove suddenly acting like the GOP should worry?
Rove, speaking on Trey Gowdy’s Fox News show Sunday Night in America, said the Republican redistricting push could absolutely “backfire.”
That is his word, not mine.
He argued that when GOP-led legislatures split up big blue cities like Texas Democrats’ urban strongholds and spread those voters across several Republican-leaning districts, the party may weaken its own margins and create more vulnerable House seats.
Well, yeah, that’s how the concept of redistricting works.
He also warned that carving up majority-black districts in the South could make the math more complicated in a swing year. Rove’s point was that if you squeeze too hard for short-term gain, you can end up creating districts that look safe on paper but are far less sturdy when the political winds turn. He noted that the House is already narrow, with Republicans holding a 217-212 majority, so even a small shift could decide control of the chamber.
That is the part of his argument worth taking seriously. But it is also worth noting that Rove sounds a lot less like a neutral analyst and a lot more like a veteran Republican cautioning his own side to pump the brakes just as the map starts tilting their way. That may be prudent. It may also be a little too eager to rain on a bunch of Republican victories.
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Especially when Democrats are clearly panicking, and there’s a good reason why. Since last summer, GOP legislatures in Texas, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina have been redrawing congressional maps and, by one count, have created 11 potential pickup opportunities for November. Ohio could add one more. Other red states are following suit.
Democrats managed to create up to five more seats for Democrats, sure, but after Virginia blew up in their faces, the consensus is that they have lost the redistricting wars.
According to Rove, the redistricting alone will not save the GOP if the broader political environment turns sour. He pointed to President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and the normal midterm drag that often hits the party in power, and he projected that Republicans could gain 8 to 12 seats due to redistricting. In contrast, Democrats could gain 5 to 6. That still leaves the GOP facing a real electoral fight, but it is a fight on a more level field than the one Democrats enjoyed for years.
So no, this is not really “backfiring.” Still, from where I sit, the message here is that the GOP’s success in the redistricting wars is no excuse to get overconfident.
