This year’s midterm environment is brutal for the GOP. History alone suggests it will be a bad year. But for the longest time, the Senate seemed safe. Now, it’s more of a coin flip, which is a troubling scenario considering what that could mean about potential Supreme Court vacancies. But there's a stubborn data point sitting in the middle of all this doom-and-gloom coverage that keeps Republican strategists from hitting the panic button. It has everything to do with who actually shows up to vote, and that could make the difference in November.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten looked at the data this week, and couldn’t hide the fact that there is some really good news for the GOP.
On the surface, things don’t look great. Trump's approval rating currently stands at 38% in the latest Quinnipiac poll, with other surveys showing numbers in the same range or slightly lower. Independents are moving away, and the president has taken hits on taxes and immigration. So why hasn't the floor caved in entirely? According to Enten, the answer is senior citizens.
"President Trump is more than holding his own amongst a very large portion of the electorate, a very reliable voting bloc, and that is senior citizens," Enten said.
Trump's approval rating among voters 65 and older has barely budged. It sat at 46% in March 2025 and now stands at 44% — essentially flat, while the rest of his coalition appears to be wearing down.
Allegedly, anyway.
And as Enten pointed out, the "young people matter" narrative that Democrats have been riding for years runs headlong into a basic political reality: older voters show up in far greater numbers than younger ones.
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The historical context makes this even more interesting. When you stack Trump's senior approval at this stage of a second term against every other 21st-century two-term president, he comes out on top. Obama was at 39% with seniors at this same point. George W. Bush sat at a dismal 34% — a collapse Enten tied directly to Bush's push to reform Social Security, the so-called third rail of American politics. Trump, by contrast, is beating both of them.
"Donald Trump is beating other presidents this century at this point in their second term, beating all of them," Enten said.
Now translate that into what actually matters in Nov. 2026. Republicans in the House face a genuinely tough environment. The generic congressional ballot among seniors shows Democrats ahead by three points — a shift from Trump winning that group by one point in Nov. 2024. It's a small move, but Enten acknowledged it could be enough to cost Republicans the House majority. That's a real concern.
The Senate, however, is a different calculation entirely. The map, the math, and now the data all point in the GOP's direction. When the most reliable voting bloc in America is only moving slightly — and Republicans are largely holding their own — the catastrophic wipeout scenario falls apart.
Florida crystallizes the point.
"Florida, a state with a lot of seniors, looks like Republicans are holding their own there," Enten said. "Donald Trump holding his own with seniors. And that's a key reason why the bottom hasn't fallen out, and Republicans have a fighting chance heading into this midterm election."
For all the talk of young voters, seniors are a far more reliable voting bloc.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 16, 2026
Trump's approval is the highest with seniors for a 21st century prez at this point in a 2nd term & holding steady...
It's a big reason the Dems taking back the Senate is not going to be easy. pic.twitter.com/gV18UzsOT9
The media will keep running the "Republican collapse" headlines, because that's the narrative they've pre-written. But when you look at the voters who reliably cast ballots, the picture looks a lot less dire for the GOP. Senior citizens aren't abandoning this president — and in a midterm year, that might be all the margin Republicans need to keep the Senate red.
