From the moment we learned of the joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, Democrats have been pushing rhetoric designed to scare people and stoke opposition to it. They have claimed Trump was starting an “endless war” and that there was no plan or strategy behind it. And initially, polls showed opposition to the strikes was significant. But a new Washington Post poll suggests that opposition to the war in Iran is softening significantly.
The poll found that 42% now support the U.S. military campaign against Iran, while 40% oppose it — a near dead heat. That's a huge reversal from where things stood just days earlier, when the Post's flash poll showed 52% opposition and only 39% support. In less than two weeks, a double-digit gap flipped.
You’ll notice that most of the movement came from the opposition becoming increasingly unsure. The Washington Post speculates there’s a reason for that.
A Post poll shortly after the strikes began found 39 percent supported “President Trump ordering airstrikes against Iran,” while 52 percent opposed them and 9 percent were unsure. The new poll asked generally about the “U.S. military campaign against Iran,” finding 42 percent support it, 40 percent oppose it, and 17 percent are unsure. The absence of President Donald Trump in the new poll’s question may have led more people to say they are “unsure,” as views about the president tend to color people’s opinions of his actions and policies.
That’s a fascinating explanation. Whether that’s really the explanation or not is questionable. Do I believe there are people on the left who reflexively oppose anything Trump does or anything connected to him? Absolutely, no doubt about that. If we accept that explanation for the change, then that would tell us a lot about Democrats and how they let partisanship distort the way they view everything.
But is that really what’s happening?
Maybe a bit, but can you really separate the Commander-in-Chief from a military operation? I’m not sure that you can. You can’t separate President George W. Bush from the war in Iraq, or Barack Obama from the bombings of Yemen, Libya, Syria, Somalia, or Pakistan. You certainly can’t put any distance between Joe Biden and the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
So I don’t think Trump’s exclusion from the question explains it. But if it did, it means the latest numbers are more accurate. In the end, I think this poll tells us that the fear-mongering about Iran isn’t landing.
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There are other good signs in the poll as well. Support for continuing strikes on Iran has risen quickly. Originally, only 25% favored continuing the campaign, but that climbed to 34% within about a week. Meanwhile, opposition fell from 47% to 42%, while the number of undecided respondents also declined, suggesting more Americans are forming opinions and increasingly siding with continued strikes.
Among supporters, 72% want the campaign to move forward. Republican backing increased from 54% to 66%, and support among independents nearly doubled from 16% to 27%. Support also rose significantly among women and Americans age 65 and older.
The Post notes that the poll shows that “Many Americans are still making up their minds on the military campaign or hold a mix of positive and negative views about it,” and that seems about right. Still, it also tells us that the Trump administration needs to prove that this operation will end quickly. Americans have been wary about war since the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns. And a clear and quick success in Iran will go a long way for the Trump administration.
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