The 2028 Democratic primary is already shaping up as a clash between the party’s identity politics and its old-school power brokers – and that’s a recipe for a civil war.
Let’s face it, today’s Democrat Party has built its brand on racial grievances and group identity. The left turned DEI, critical race theory, and affirmative action into a kind of secular religion, applying them to hiring, college admissions, corporate boardrooms, and even presidential politics. Barack Obama was elected president despite a glaringly small resume. Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris as his running mate even though she is… well… an idiot… all because he knew his party demands diversity on the ballot.
The same logic applied when Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. When that happened, Democrats had little choice but to fall in line behind Kamala. She wasn’t just the sitting vice president. She was the first female vice president and a woman of color. Backing anyone else would have triggered a meltdown on the left. Nancy Pelosi rushed to endorse Kamala and helped lock the party in behind her. The message was clear: oppose Kamala and you’re on the wrong side of the identity politics priesthood.
Kamala may have suffered a humiliating defeat to Donald Trump in 2024, but she’s not white or male and has the name recognition to be positioned well for a 2028 run. And the polls back her up.
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Early national polling has Kamala Harris as the nominal frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. RealClearPolitics’ national average puts her on top of the field at about 30.5%, with a roughly 9-point edge over California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who sits at 21.5%. Pete Buttigieg is stuck in single digits, around 8.6%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hovers near 7.5%, with the rest of the bench even lower. Harris’s numbers jump around from poll to poll, though. In some surveys, such as the I&I/TIPP poll, she approaches 38% with a large lead. In other polls, such as Echelon Insights, Newsom edges ahead, at 27% to Harris’s 21%. But, either way, she can easily claim frontrunner status.
But Nancy Pelosi clearly has someone else in mind for 2028: Gavin Newsom.
According to a report from Axios, she’s spent decades grooming Gavin Newsom, from his days as mayor of San Francisco to the governor’s mansion. Former aides describe her as “a Gavin fan-girl” who rarely gushes over politicians but makes an exception for him. She has called him “masterful” on leadership, praised his “vision” and “values,” and swooned over his evolution as both a politician and a family man. She even went out of her way recently to say he would “make a great president,” while obligatorily adding that Democrats have a “strong bench” for 2028.
This isn’t just idle flattery. Pelosi still controls one of the most powerful donor networks in Democratic politics. She’s been a key validator for Newsom as he’s emerged as a 2028 contender.
Pelosi putting her thumb on the scale for Newsom this early is more than a personal preference. It’s a direct challenge to the identity hierarchy Democrats have spent years building. If the party really believes its own rhetoric, Kamala should be untouchable. Yet the most powerful Democrat of the last generation is quietly auditioning yet another white male.
If Kamala runs, the Democrats won’t just have a normal primary. They’ll be forced to choose between their own ideology and their own instincts. Do they follow the logic of identity politics and clear the way for her, or do they chase “electability” with a privileged white male their base has been taught to resent?
That’s how you get a civil war. Not over policy details, but over which will mean more to the party in 2028: identity or electability.
