Historically, the party out of power tends to do well in midterm elections, and at the moment, polls suggest that Democrats have the advantage for now. But, there is reason to believe that the advantage won’t last long, and there won’t be any talking points that they can use to stop it.
Do you remember how Joe Biden tried to convince the public that prices went down on his watch when they were actually going up? People tend to trust how they feel about the economy based on their own experiences, and you can’t tell people that prices are going down when their wallets prove otherwise. Well, Democrats have been talking down the Trump economy for a year now, and, well, the economy just delivered some devastating news for them.
According to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, economic growth surged to 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, the fastest pace we've seen in two years. Economists had predicted 3.3% growth, so this figure blew past expectations.
This marks the strongest quarterly performance since 2023, which proves that the economy has serious momentum under President Donald Trump. The second quarter of 2025 had already shown solid growth at 3.8%, bouncing back nicely from a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter. When you average out the first nine months of 2025, the economy expanded at a 2.5% annualized rate — not too shabby considering the disaster Trump inherited.
Fox Business has more.
The BEA said the rise in real GDP reflected a rise in consumer spending, exports, government spending and investment. Imports also declined in the third quarter.
"Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter than in the second," the BEA said.
The report noted that real final sales to private domestic purchasers – which is the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment – rose 2.9% in Q3 after being revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.
Data collection for the report was impacted by the 43-day government shutdown that began on Oct. 1, which caused the BEA to delay its initial estimate for Q3 until Dec. 23 and to forego a second estimate.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said the robust GDP result "was driven by resilient consumer spending, robust equipment and AI-related investment, a sizable boost from net international trade and a rebound in federal government outlays." He added that "The U.S. economy is neither overheating nor stalling – it is adjusting" to what he called an "unusually intense set of crosscurrents."
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Those “crosscurrents” include rising tariffs, declining net migration, explosive investment in artificial intelligence, tax reform, and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting plans. EY-Parthenon projects fourth-quarter 2025 growth will hit 3.2%, with full-year 2025 growth averaging 2.3%. Those are numbers any president would happily claim as a win.
The problem for Democrats is that if the economy continues to be strong through 2026, their entire plan to win back the majority in this year’s midterm elections. Trust me, this is a devastating blow for Democrats hoping to campaign on economic anxiety. It’s not an exaggeration to say that this data presents a serious problem for them.
It's hard to sell doom and gloom when GDP is accelerating at the fastest pace in two years and beating forecasts by substantial margins. The economy isn't hobbling along; it's thriving. And that’s incredible momentum leading into 2026. And now Democrats face an uphill battle convincing voters that things are terrible.
