When Jasmine Crockett announced her bid for the Senate last year, plenty of people — myself included — had a good laugh. For years now, Democrats have been saying they can win Texas, but even her fellow Democrats knew she was the last person who could pull it off. Nevertheless, she seemed convinced that she could win. But now it looks like she may not even make it past the primary.
Democrats have been beating their heads against the wall trying to win statewide office in Texas for years now, and they keep coming up short. But they see this Senate race as yet another golden opportunity to break the GOP's winning streak. Party strategists have somehow convinced themselves that opposition to President Donald Trump could fuel an electoral wave big enough to finally deliver them a statewide victory. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has called Texas a "very possible" Democratic pickup opportunity in 2026, though he hasn't quite put it in the top four targets.
Despite being the presumptive frontrunner when she jumped into the race, Crockett is now trailing state Rep. James Talarico in the polls.
That's got to sting. Crockett, despite her national profile, is as big as her fake eyelashes, yet she is struggling in her own party’s primary. Her Senate campaign is clearly a last-ditch effort to remain in government after her district was redrawn. Now she's watching her supposed sure thing slip away before the primary even happens.
How is this happening?
The polling reveals some uncomfortable truths for Democrats. There's a clear racial divide between Crockett and Talarico. Talarico holds a majority among Hispanic and white voters, while Crockett has strong support among black voters. The gender gap is just as telling. Men favor Talarico by a wide margin, 52% to 30%, while women are almost evenly split between the two candidates, at 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.
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While we can parse the demographic splits looking for an explanation, the answer is probably far more straightforward.
Texas has become the Democrats' white whale. They've been trying to turn it blue for years without success, and the pattern is embarrassingly consistent. Back in 2018, some polls claimed that Beto O'Rourke was ahead of Ted Cruz. Cruz won that election. Then, in 2022, Beto tried to run for governor. Some polls said the race was close. Abbott ultimately won by 11 points. Fast forward to 2024, and polls once again gave Democrats hope and showed a close race between Cruz and Colin Allred. Cruz won by eight points. And don’t get me started on the polls that claimed Texas was in play for Kamala Harris.
Despite the Democrats’ repeated failure to flip Texas, they keep throwing money and resources into the state, believing they still have a chance. Even in defeat, Democrats believe Texas is trending blue, and the rejection of Crockett in the Democratic Party primary is more likely a sign that Texas Democrats realize that they need a more pragmatic approach to choosing their candidates if they want to be even remotely competitive.
Does that really mean Tallerico can win? I wouldn’t bet on it. But, if you were a Democrat, do you really think a state that Trump won by more than 13 points is going to elect Jasmine Crockett? Of course not. Talarico may not win, but you’d probably still think you had a shot with anyone but Crockett.
So, sorry, Jasmine, things aren’t looking good for you right now. But, something tells me you won’t go away quietly.
