The Schumer Shutdown may be behind us, but something tells me that another shutdown in January is inevitable. The sticking point, of course, is Obamacare subsidies. Democrats want them extended, while Republicans don’t. Meanwhile, even Donald Trump seems to think that a two-year extension is necessary to work this issue out. This is the battle that’s going to define the next few months, and it’s exactly the battle Democrats want.
And I don’t know how it’s going to play out.
House Speaker Mike Johnson just threw cold water all over President Trump's developing healthcare plan. Johnson warned the White House that most Republicans have zero appetite for extending the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, according to people familiar with the discussions. These subsidies are set to expire at the end of this year. While Democrats scream that the sky is falling, Republicans correctly point out that these handouts do nothing to address the real problem: Obamacare has made healthcare costs skyrocket for everyone, even those who don’t qualify for subsidies.
Trump's team had been working on a proposal to extend the subsidies for two years, probably trying to avoid the political headache of premium hikes right before the midterms. The plan would cap eligibility at 700% of the federal poverty line and eliminate those ridiculous zero-premium plans that Republicans argue have become fraud factories. But Johnson's message was that even with reforms attached, this is a hard sell to the GOP conference.
The political calculation here isn't complicated. Trump himself posted on social media back in November: "Instead of giving hundreds of billions of dollars to these money-sucking insurance companies, we're going to give it to the American people.” He's right that Obamacare has been a boon for insurance companies while leaving regular Americans with fewer choices and higher costs. Trump previously floated the idea of direct payments to consumers so they can buy their own insurance, though that concept hasn't gained serious legislative momentum.
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Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of lawmakers, Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), introduced the Bipartisan Healthcare Optimization Protection Extension Act. The HOPE Act would extend enhanced premium tax credits for two years, with an income cap of about $200,000 for a family of four, and include anti-fraud provisions. Hurd declared, "I don't care how red or blue your district is, this is something that your constituents care about."
As someone who doesn’t qualify for subsidies, I can tell you that premiums are skyrocketing for a lot more people than the 20-23 million Americans who do, and extending the subsidies doesn’t help the rest of us, and only makes the problem worse. I get that midterm elections are coming up next year, but this should be the moment to repeal and replace Obamacare, not double down on it.
The continuing resolution that ended the Schumer Shutdown only funds the government through January 30. With Obamacare subsidies expiring on December 31 and another funding deadline looming, something tells me another shutdown in January is inevitable.
