California’s 2026 gubernatorial race just got an unexpected twist with Eric Swalwell throwing his hat in the ring. It seemed like a strange move to me at first, until it became clear to me what Swalwell’s endgame really is. Is this really about his desire to run the Golden State? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Swalwell, who represents California’s solidly blue 14th district, entered the already crowded Democratic primary, which suggests that his campaign is more about positioning than governing. Think about it, do you think it’s a coincidence he’s jumping in just as Katie Porter’s support keeps slipping and Sen. Alex Padilla declared he’s not running? He seems primed to jump in and become the frontrunner. But I don’t buy for a second that he wants to be governor.
His messaging gives the game away. “I'm running for Governor because prices are too high and people are scared. California's next governor has two jobs,” his campaign website says. “One, keep the worst president in history out of our homes, out of our streets, and out of our lives.’
He’s not talking about Barack Obama or Joe Biden.
I will be California's fighter and protector. Our state is under attack. The President has militarized our streets, canceled cancer research, zeroed out clean energy climate projects, and is chasing our immigrant friends and neighbors through their workplaces, kids' schools, and houses of worship. A lot of candidates talk about taking on Trump. I'm taking him on in real time. My January 6 lawsuit is one of the only lawsuits against the President that survived his new presidency. Speaker Pelosi selected me to help lead his impeachment, and today, I'm leading the Democrats' effort in the House to investigate January 6.
Does this sound like a guy who’s running for governor of California, or is he hoping to position himself as the face of the anti-Trump resistance in California with the ultimate goal of setting up another presidential run?
I think we all know the answer.
Swalwell holds a locked-down blue district with no term limits, so he doesn’t face pressure to give up his seat. An open Senate seat in California could take years to materialize. The governor’s race gives him a real shot to establish himself as a key figure of the Trump resistance.
The political landscape also lines up in his favor.
A successful bid for governor would give him a whole year to posture as California’s Trump-Resister-in-Chief. At the same time, former Governor Gavin Newsom has to spend the entire time clinging to relevance without any actual power to wield.
Of course, Swalwell’s run isn’t without baggage. The cloud of a scandal involving an affair with a Chinese spy while he was on the House Intelligence Committee hangs over him like a guillotine. That, combined with his public image issues, will offer easy ammunition for rival candidates eager to derail his ambitions.
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His original presidential run was underwhelming at best, and this latest gambit seems calculated to create a fresh narrative as the evergreen Trump adversary. Holding California’s top office would give Swalwell a platform, visibility, and a storyline to re-enter the national spotlight with a vengeance. It’s less about governing and more about positioning for what he really wants: the Oval Office.
Do you remember Swalwell’s 2020 presidential campaign? I can’t blame you if you don’t, because it barely got off the ground. It was like a loud fart that vanished quickly. He entered the Democratic primary with a pitch built on youth and energy, aiming to set himself apart from Biden and the other older contenders.
Voters never bought it. His fundraising stalled, his polling stayed flat. By midsummer, his campaign ran out of gas due to a lack of money and momentum. He bowed out in July 2019 after only three months as a candidate. Even Kamala Harris held on longer. In the end, Democrats chose the old white guy instead of the young white guy.
Swalwell is clearly taking a page from Gavin Newsom’s playbook. He’s watched the governor turn Sacramento into a launching pad for a 2028 presidential run, and now he wants his own spotlight. By making a play for the governorship, Swalwell isn’t just aiming for a promotion; he’s positioning himself to leapfrog Newsom and grab the Democratic nomination for himself.
