We’ve been watching the Virginia elections closely here at PJ Media, mindful of their significance. Recent events, however, have made this contest an even bigger deal, with stakes that extend far beyond routine partisan politics. What Virginia voters decide in November won’t just determine party control—it will show where the Democratic Party draws its boundaries on violent political rhetoric, and whether any limits remain at all.
Democratic Attorney General candidate Jay Jones is under fire after leaked text messages showed him fantasizing about the murder of Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Todd Gilbert and his children. The texts, originally sent in 2022, are as disturbing as they are explicit. Jones wrote about wanting Gilbert to receive "two bullets to the head" and even went so far as to wish Gilbert's wife could watch her children die, apparently hoping that kind of horror might change his views on gun policy.
A recent poll from Cygnal, a Republican polling firm, shows that the scandal has, indeed, had an impact on the race. The survey, conducted October 6 and 7 among 600 likely general election voters, puts Democrat Abigail Spanberger at 49.2% and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears at 45.2%. It marks a clear shift from the previous Cygnal poll in September, when Spanberger held a 50.3% to 43.2% edge. So, Earle-Sears is closing the gap, and momentum matters heading into Election Day. Spanberger’s disastrous debate performance and her continued support of Jones has clearly shifted the race.
But will it be enough?
Betting markets paint an interesting picture of how this scandal is playing out. Polymarket gamblers still give Spanberger a 93% chance of winning the governor's race—despite the Jones scandal and her debate debacle. Jones himself has only about a 40% chance of victory in the Attorney General race according to those same markets. Voters are clearly distinguishing between the two candidates, but the question remains whether they will hold Spanberger accountable for refusing to denounce her running mate in any meaningful way.
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This is all happening against a backdrop of escalating political violence that the left seems incapable of addressing honestly. The assassination of Charlie Kirk last month sent shockwaves through the conservative movement, yet the response from Democrats was muted at best. The left previously lionized Luigi Mangione after he murdered UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, turning him into something of a folk hero among the far left. This election in Virginia will tell us a lot about what Democrats voters think about such violent, hateful rhetoric.
Virginia voters have a clear choice in front of them. If either Spanberger or Jones wins in November, it amounts to a de facto endorsement of the violent rhetoric Jones spewed in those text messages. It sends a message that Democrats can say whatever they want about Republicans, no matter how vile or dangerous, and face no real consequences. This election is a chance for Virginians to take a stand against political violence and the party that enables it. The whole country will be watching to see what they decide.
