In New Jersey, the GOP is sensing a rare opening in the gubernatorial race, a state long considered a Democratic stronghold. Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, is under renewed scrutiny for her role in a 1994 Naval Academy cheating scandal, an episode she had previously downplayed. Republican congressmen are now demanding the release of her military records to shed light on the full extent of her involvement.
That controversy has quickly cast a shadow over Sherrill’s campaign, and recent polling reflects a tightening race with Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The final month of campaigning is shaping up to be decisive, and early indicators suggest that Republicans are riding an unusual wave of momentum. In a state where Democrats typically enjoy a significant registration advantage, GOP voters are turning out in historic numbers.
As of October 3, Republicans had returned mail-in ballots at a rate of 18.61% — ahead of Democrats at 16.55%. This isn’t just a minor fluctuation; it marks a major departure from the state’s voting norms and signals that New Jersey could produce more good news for the GOP in the weeks ahead.
Michael Pruser of DecisionDeskHQ pulled together the numbers, and while Democrats still hold a raw vote lead of more than 53,000 — thanks to their sheer registration advantage — the return-rate gap offers an encouraging glimpse into GOP momentum. Independents, meanwhile, are barely stirring, with a return rate of only 9.32%. Given that New Jersey’s 2.16 million independents could ultimately make the difference in what’s shaping up to be a nail-biter, their current disengagement adds another layer of suspense.
GOP pollster Adam Geller, who has worked with the Ciattarelli campaign, told The Post that Republicans have historically been less inclined to vote by mail, meaning this lead in the rate of early ballot returns could be a hopeful sign.
“Clearly, it’s encouraging for the Republicans right now,” Geller said. “You could argue that, in addition to coming around to vote by mail, it could be a measurement of the enthusiasm for the candidate.”
Brent Buchanan, the president and CEO of Cygnal polling firm, said that the early mail-in data is interesting given President Trump’s growing popularity in the Garden State.
“Republicans have gotten serious about participating in early voting,” Buchanan told The Post.
“Pair that with the strong shift statewide toward Trump, and you have a growing recipe for Republican wins up and down the ticket.”
RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Sherrill’s lead slipping from 8.3 points to 3.3 points in just one month. A couple of polls even hint at a statistical tie. Affordability, property taxes, and stubbornly high utility rates are key issues of the campaign, which has Ciattarelli’s message about fiscal sanity and cost-of-living relief resonating with voters desperate for change.
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report cautions that Democrats may simply be returning ballots later, but he concedes that the GOP base looks “energized for change.” In his view, independents will likely decide the race — making their late-game behavior crucial.
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It’s still early enough for the numbers to swing in either direction, and cautious optimism remains the order of the day for Republicans. But the higher GOP return rate in mail voting marks a real break from the past, one that suggests Ciattarelli and his allies aren’t just relying on Election Day turnout to make their case. In a deeply blue state where the margin for error is thin, every early vote counts, and right now, those votes are trickling in faster for the right than the left. That’s not a fluke. That’s the sound of momentum, and one that could be huge for the GOP.
Let’s not forget that Kamala Harris carried New Jersey by a historically narrow six-point margin in November. Now, a recent poll shows Trump even outpolling outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy, a sign that after eight years of Democratic rule, the political winds may finally be shifting. New Jersey, long a reliably blue state, could be moving toward swing-state territory, and the coming weeks may prove critical for the GOP’s momentum.
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