The ink has barely dried on the 2024 election results, and the Democrats are already desperately searching for someone to lead their party out of the political wilderness. A new Morning Consult poll shows Kamala Harris — yes, that Kamala Harris — leading the pack of potential Democratic candidates. If you're scratching your head wondering if Democrats have completely lost their minds, you're not alone.
According to the poll, Harris commands a whopping 36% support among Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters. This is the same Kamala Harris who couldn’t talk her way out of a paper bag and suffered a humiliating defeat against President Trump mere months ago.
Truth be told, the bench doesn’t look all that great. Pete Buttigieg, the failed Transportation Secretary, comes in at a distant second with 10% support. Perhaps the most telling aspect of this poll is the three-way tie for third place between socialist darling Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala's former running mate Gov. Tim Walz, and California's pretty boy Gavin Newsom.
It’s true that we’re already seeing each trying desperately to carve out a niche in the party — AOC is currently on a "Fighting Oligarchy" speaking tour with Bernie Sanders (because that worked out so well before), while Newsom is attempting to rebrand himself as a moderate with a new podcast. Meanwhile, Walz is just embarrassing himself by talking.
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But here's why we shouldn't waste too much time analyzing these numbers: they're about as meaningful as a Biden campaign promise. At this stage, these polls reflect little more than name recognition. Kamala leads simply because she was vice president. It doesn’t matter that she was the least popular vice president in the history of polling; voters know who she is.
With three years before we start seeing candidates declare, this poll and others like it are completely meaningless. Case in point: Jeb Bush was the Republican frontrunner for the 2016 Republican nomination back in December 2014. Jeb!
Name recognition. Don’t underestimate it.
There’s little reason to get excited that Democrat voters are willing to consider Harris as their standard-bearer in 2028. We can convince ourselves that it shows that they haven't learned a thing from their recent defeats, or we can accept the fact that Luigi Mangione would likely poll well in the same if he were included.
The reality is that the Democratic field will look vastly different as we get closer to 2028. New faces will emerge, current favorites will fade, and the party will continue its internal struggle between its establishment and progressive wings. For now, these polls are nothing more than political entertainment for the chattering class. The real story will unfold as potential candidates step into the spotlight and voters get a better look at what they're really offering.
If polls at this point mattered, Democrats would have a lot to worry about, because it looks like the nomination is Kamala’s if she wants it. But they don’t matter. I wouldn’t bother giving these polls the time of day for at least another two years, if not longer.
