On Monday morning, we learned that Mexico had officially caved to Trump after Trump imposed 25% tariffs to force action on illegal immigration and the flow of drugs into the United States. Trump had a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to the northern border to combat drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl, while the U.S. pledged to curb the flow of high-powered weapons into Mexico. Both nations will immediately negotiate security and trade issues, and in response, the U.S. has paused tariffs for one month as negotiations move forward.
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) February 3, 2025
The question now is when will Canada cave?
It may not be long.
According to reports, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has already spoken with President Donald Trump on Monday morning. While details of their conversation remain under wraps, a spokesperson from Trudeau’s office confirmed that trade and border issues were at the forefront of their discussion, with a follow-up call slated for later in the day — just ahead of Trump’s tariffs set to take effect on Tuesday.
Canada can easily avoid Trump’s tariffs; all it has to do is strengthen border security and crack down on illicit drug trafficking into the U.S. It’s spelled out in Trump’s executive order. Mexico figured out that it was far cheaper to strengthen border security than it would be to engage in a trade war with the United States — a war it would inevitably lose.
Both Canada and Mexico should have anticipated this and been ready to negotiate with Trump on trade. Trump had been promising to retaliate against countries taking advantage of the U.S. economy. In light of the success of his first-term tariffs, Canada and Mexico should have foreseen this confrontation and how it would end.
Related: Mexico Caves to Trump, Will Send Troops to Border
Perhaps at this point, it’s a matter of ego. Trudeau has vowed to respond decisively, naming American goods worth $155 billion that will face equivalent tariffs if Trump does not relent. But Mexico also announced plans to retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. goods before caving.
“We don't want to be here; we didn't ask for this, but we will not back down," Trudeau said.
Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) has made more convincing comments about football.
Will Trudeau ultimately cave? Let’s face it, Canada needs American goods more than America needs Canadian goods, and if Trudeau wants to play a game of chicken, he’s playing with someone who has yet to lose.
In the past week, Colombia caved to Trump’s tariff threats after Colombia refused to accept planes of deported illegal immigrants. Panama also caved to Trump and is now in the process of reducing China’s influence over the Panama Canal. And, of course, Mexico has become the latest to cave. Trump’s record of winning is impressive and should stand as a warning to Trudeau that Trump is really good at winning.
So the question remains, how long before Canada caves? Will Trudeau agree to Trump’s terms before the tariffs take effect, or will he wait and crumble under the weight of U.S. tariffs?
